Current Affairs

America is in trouble, whether it wants to hear this assessment or not. Without a flip to help Ukraine, the war in the Middle East is coming to bite this presidency, whether the so-called commander in chief accepts an argument that without pouring tech and lessons learned into Ukraine, there will be an escalation in attacks on US forces in the Middle East.

The attack on Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan was not accidental, it was not due to Iranian boots on the ground, and was certainly not due to Iranian intelligence agencies piecing targeting information and having the technology to put together a plan, it was wholly a piece of intelligence gifted to the Iranian state. The intelligence is Russian, according to Foreign Affairs, which should ring alarm bells in the White House.

So the question is why would placing pressure on Russia in Ukraine mean something different in the Gulf theatre… It would give the US a point of reference and an understanding of Russian weaponry, political motivation to extend the war into the Gulf and the mindset that wants to extend the geopolitical narrative into a third world war. It would also bring Putin to the table faster than expected and put limitations on Russian intelligence sharing with the Iranians and be part of any discussion or negotiation with the Russians. Furthermore, it would place pressure on Xi Jinping to understand that sharing intelligence will bring an escalation of intelligence sharing and promised weaponry to Taiwan a reality – not just a delayed possibility.

The intransigence of the presidency in the US to supply the weapons that have been paid for by the Ukrainians is a point of pigheadedness by the presidency, there is no logic, arguments or route to peace by denying the Ukrainians the supplies paid for. And technically it does not serve anyone – but Putin, but it also does not serve the administration – neither their arguments of escalation or argument that they want to force a peace settlement in this theatre…. It is a war that needs to escalate to bring an agreement. The supposed relationship that Trump has with Putin needs a point of flex, bending but empowering rather than cowering this presidency.

Every argument put forward apolitically by Putin is one of escalation, if it is not a point of supplying the Iranians with new Shahids (this time with jet engines) or new missiles that can circumvent defence systems that the US has supplied their allies, it is a matter of intelligence supplied to the Iranians that has targeted US servicemen and demonstrated the blocks the US has had in the Middle East are standing targets…

This is an argument that may not be good reading for the presidency, but nothing so far has been in his favour – each argument he has made diplomatically has been negated by an event in the Gulf, and each action, reaction and argument has been countered. The shallowness of the White House is nothing new, but the idea that Trumps arguments have any legs is challenging at the least.

His fantasy that Russia is up for sale – is and will always be a fantasy. Russia has moved on economically where this presidency is concerned. The salesmen like Witkoff and Kurchener are just sitting waiting and being promised the earth, but in reality they are getting nothing. Once again it is a question of Trump et al hearing what they want to hear and that has proven to be detrimental to the health of US servicemen and women. The flex I am talking about is sprung, something that comes back on itself rather than a flex that bends to the will of the narrative in Beijing or Moscow, meaning US diplomacy has legs rather than an ego trip for two men who are promised the earth and return with just promises.

But it is in Ukraine that the war has to escalate, the Ukrainians have demonstrated their ability to manage Putin and the Russian army. Trump’s argument that it was a Russian generals stupidity – demonstrates his inability to understand the complexity of warfare, especially in this theatre. It was the road that forced the Russians into the fields, they were sitting targets, unable to move through the strikes by Ukrainian forces. It was the failure of the Spetzna to take the airfield etc… and Zelensky’s refusal to leave. There are so many reasons for Russian failure, but the outstanding argument is that the Ukrainians were ready and fought tooth and nail to deliver victory, as US forces are finding in the Arabian Gulf, it is a matter of pride that has brought the Iranian state together not acceptance of the IRGC government or theocracy.

But it is pressure in the Ukrainian theatre that will bring an agreement in the gulf, not the other way around as the US administrations thinks. The more pressure on Ukraine itself is a realization of Russian argument and the clawing back of a semblance of acceptance that the US is a power that can be relied on, rather than one that is not trusted in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. It is time Trump realized Putin is not an economic asset to be praised but one that undermines the presidency at every point of contact.

The fantasy that there isn’t a price to pay for dealing with Putin – is also a reality that this president needs to meet head on and develop a strategy rather than an off the cuff argument that Trump will save the world, while getting further into a conflict that has no ending….