Lebanon has a problem that cuts deeply into its identity as a state. It has a war that it is not fighting, but a proxy of Iran is and that is Hezbollah. The south of Lebanon to the Litani river is either occupied or a no go zone, towns and villages have been demolished and control of who travels to their home is tightly regulated by the Israeli Defence Force and the Lebanese Armed Forces. UNIFIL, reports that the last rocket fired into Israel was on the 8th September and though a ceasefire has been in place since June, the LAF and UNIFIL report that there have been over one thousand infractions by the Israelis.
Critics of the Lebanese government argue that the inability of the Lebanese Armed Forces to disarm Hezbollah is rooted in sectarian difference, especially in parliament, where the House Speaker Nabi Berri (Amal), is rooted in sectarian alignment with his Shia constituents who are split between Hezbollah and Amal. Put into context this alignment of identity has been explored in my last article, – but as Michael Young commented in a recent article – “Hezbollah seems to be run by Iran, now.”
The General Secretary of Hezbollah, Naim Qassam, issued a statement from the Iranian’s that “ending the Israeli aggression in Lebanon is a priority.” Further more a brokered transfer of funds from Iran has promised $14,000 to every Hezbollah family that lost their property. But the mood in Lebanon is unforgiving, IISS reports the state is ‘grim’ with high inflation, a deteriorating economy and the elections in 2026 had to be canceled.
The state is in a flux, they can neither disarm Hezbollah or manage a war economy. It is catastrophic for the state, revenue has disappeared from the main sector – Tourism. The state had been managing the country through its technocratic government and was climbing out of a self inflicted crisis caused by the banks collapsing and a port explosion in 2019, but the growth experienced by the state since the technocrats came to power has been shattered. Corruption had been shuttered, banks resourced, tax collected and business growth higher than expected.
But like anything in Lebanon the fragmentation of the state got in the way of the state getting onto a better footing. And the self inflicted wound this time lies firmly with Hezbollah and the so called Axis of the willing. The war with Israel did not start with the assassination of Ali Khamenei, but had been simmering since 8th October 2023, in support of Hamas.
The war has been brutal for Hezbollah, loss of its long time leader Nasrallah, pagers exploding and a day ‘dubbed’ Black Wednesday by the Lebanese government when a massive air attack by the Israelis targeted 100 buildings including in Beirut.
But the demand of Israel and the United States to the Lebanese government is for the LAF to disarm Hezbollah in its entirety. Naim Qassam in a statement said that “Hezbollah would not disarm while Israel continued the occupation”. Brave statements have been made by members of government, in March the prime minister Nawaf Salamin, with the full backing of parliament demanded “Hezbollah surrender it’s weapons to the LAF.” But edicts from Tehran and the stubborn resistance of the leadership in Lebanon has rejected the Lebanese governments demands.
It is all a bit more complex than the summary, it is startling that the Lebanese government has opened the door to negotiate with the Israelis, and further more to make statements that Hezbollah surrender its weapons. But it is also a question of how Lebanon finds a way to manage the financial crisis that does not only challenge the government but also the security forces. There is a shortfall in the budget to fund the Lebanese security forces and there is an inability to manage the state by the government in its present form. Though President Aoun has been to the White House to ask for funding for the security forces, there is deep scepticism in the administration that the Lebanese security forces can disarm Hezbollah.
The complexity in the argument of disarming Hezbollah before there can be peace and a withdrawal by the IDF from the 13 kilometer buffer zone inside Lebanon, is very much a question of sovereignty for the Lebanese government. Placements of the security forces on the other-side of the Litani have to a degree been a success, but there are other concerns and that is the removal of UNIFIL from its position in Lebanon in January. Though ineffective and mostly documenting tensions, strikes and the wars that have taken place, they did serve as a peace broker between Hezbollah and the Israeli state.
There is a hole in the Lebanese governments budget for the funding of the LAF of $9 billion. The government has reached out to Europe, the United States and the Middle East, but the same arguments persist, results are wanted and one of the results is the disarmament of Hezbollah. President Aoun has reached out to Britain, France, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan and been in talks with Qatar, all wanting to help, provide peace keeping forces and funding, but either Hezbollah or the Israelis have rejected the military forces needed to bring peace disarm Hezbollah and ensure the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese territory.
It is Catch 22.
Lebanon cannot get the resources to manage the security it needs without funding from its allies unless Hezbollah is disarmed. The state cannot disarm Hezbollah without the security forces or contingent from other nations and cannot get agreements from Hezbollah or Israel to allow these forces on the ground. The state cannot repair the economy while Hezbollah is still armed and Israel is occupying the south of the country, therefore it cannot get the revenue to pay for the most basic amenities, the security forces, keeping the economy afloat or service its debt.
It seems Hezbollah cannot move either, it has vowed that it will not disarm unless Israel withdrawals and is dependent on Iran for funding and weapons. With the new Syrian regime closing the supply route Hezbollah depended on under Assad. Hezbollah are just as stuck in how they can continue to conduct a war with no supplies, weapons, ammunition, rockets or finance from the Iranian state, yet they are under the control of Tehran, that is dictating the aims objectives and argument of its proxy.
Israel is stuck, it has to keep the buffer as long as Hezbollah is a threat to the state. It cannot withdrawal, get peace on its northern border and has to continue military operations in Lebanon. Politically it is dependent on the government coming to an agreement with the Lebanese government and must realize the Lebanese security forces do not have the weapons, manpower or resources to disarm Hezbollah in its present form. The worst case scenario for the Israelis is if Lebanon disintegrated into a civil war, if the the state broke up and fractured – meaning Israel would be forced into a dizzying battle of internal Lebanese politics, which Hezbollah became the force it is in the 1980s and the reason for the war.
The 1982 “Yinon Plan” written by Oded Yinon, has recently been resurrected by the Mossad, it argues that the Arab world is a “fragile, artificial construct made up of competing ethnic, religious, and sectarian minorities.” He argued that Israels long-term security depended on “exploiting these internal divisions to fragment states.” In many ways Lebanon is the perfect example of this argument, fractured ethnically, it is dependent on a security force that has performed miracles to keep the state together for very few gains. But the disarmament of Hezbollah is to large a step for the security forces to manage alone and unless helped physically and financially the state will remain a hostage to the dynamics of the Middle East. And though the war is at an impasse – the Lebanese state is in dire trouble unless the LAF can team up and disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanon once again concentrates on the real threat – the economy.
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