Tag: Middle East
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Will the 20 point plan lead to more….
Having read Yair Lapid’s argument for change in Israel there is one lesson and that is not to take anything coming out of the mouth of Netanyahu as having any value when in negotiation. In announcing Trump’s proposal for his 20 point peace plan, there is a realisation that Netanyahu had decided to destroy the…
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The miracle of Lebanon
The miracle of Lebanon is that it did not de-generate into the mess of the 1970s and 1980s. The Lebanese security forces have managed a crisis through extraordinary diplomacy even though it has been starved of funding by a political class that has been driven by infighting. Parliament has managed to elect a new government,…
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Intelligence and the move towards realising the hole Iran is in
Apart from the decision to think Israel was bluffing, the Iranians have made a catalogue of mistakes that have made its decisions to fight a war impossible. The concept that Ayatollah khamanei is threatening the United States falls into the bracket of not registering the reality of the states weakness. Trump may buy into the…
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Diplomacy or revenge
There was something that didn’t quite fit in with the news conference given by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The niceties of the press conference were mixed with a statement from the state that rambled on with threats and then on to international law. The elements that were most talked about were those of international law,…
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The failure of the Revolutionary Guard and Ayatollah Khamenei
There were no surprises when Israel attacked the nuclear facilities in Iran, what was a surprise was that the Iranians were not prepared to manage the attack last night. Trump had warned that Israel was going to attack Iran and its facilities, when he ordered the removal of all non essential personnel from the diplomatic…
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Whack a mole
Its a game of whack-a-mole, as the hammer goes down on one hole, then a mole pops up from another hole. That is Israel’s problem, it is fighting a continual battle to suppress the voices of the Palestinians, whether you agree with the analogy or not, Israel is playing a game that it cannot win.…
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Syria’s future can be found through a constitution that is 100 years old
In 1791, France published a constitution, which defined France as a secular republic based on three pillars – liberty, equality and fraternity. One hundred years ago Syrians based a draft constitution on the ideas of the French constitution, the Syrians argued at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference for a state based on a monarchy that…
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Syria….twelve years on
Its not easy assessing the situation in Syria, but the facts are very easy to manage if you are cynical. The idea that Aleppo, Hama and possibly Homs have fallen is a significant factor in the analysis of the war. But the question is what has happened to the Syrian army that it capitulated so…
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There are options
The Arab people are seething about the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, they want more than their autocratic governments are willing to give. But there is also a realisation that the peace treaties that were set are keeping. The idea that Jordan, Egypt, Syria or the Gulf states would willingly join the war that Iran…
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With the end of Biden comes another war….
With the end of Biden comes the realisation that he has not really got a handle on the process’ that he tried to put in place for peace in the Middle East. The idea of an all powerful US in the Middle East is taking precedence to the avenues of discussion that took place before…
Current Affairs 