Tag: Iran
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Intelligence and the move towards realising the hole Iran is in
Apart from the decision to think Israel was bluffing, the Iranians have made a catalogue of mistakes that have made its decisions to fight a war impossible. The concept that Ayatollah khamanei is threatening the United States falls into the bracket of not registering the reality of the states weakness. Trump may buy into the…
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Diplomacy or revenge
There was something that didn’t quite fit in with the news conference given by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The niceties of the press conference were mixed with a statement from the state that rambled on with threats and then on to international law. The elements that were most talked about were those of international law,…
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The failure of the Revolutionary Guard and Ayatollah Khamenei
There were no surprises when Israel attacked the nuclear facilities in Iran, what was a surprise was that the Iranians were not prepared to manage the attack last night. Trump had warned that Israel was going to attack Iran and its facilities, when he ordered the removal of all non essential personnel from the diplomatic…
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Syria’s future can be found through a constitution that is 100 years old
In 1791, France published a constitution, which defined France as a secular republic based on three pillars – liberty, equality and fraternity. One hundred years ago Syrians based a draft constitution on the ideas of the French constitution, the Syrians argued at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference for a state based on a monarchy that…
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Syria….twelve years on
Its not easy assessing the situation in Syria, but the facts are very easy to manage if you are cynical. The idea that Aleppo, Hama and possibly Homs have fallen is a significant factor in the analysis of the war. But the question is what has happened to the Syrian army that it capitulated so…
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There are options
The Arab people are seething about the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, they want more than their autocratic governments are willing to give. But there is also a realisation that the peace treaties that were set are keeping. The idea that Jordan, Egypt, Syria or the Gulf states would willingly join the war that Iran…
Current Affairs 