Current Affairs

John B Judis, writing in Persuasion went back to Hagel to explore Trumpian arguments by examining his scatterbrained approach to politics, economics and foreign affairs. Judis analysed the presidency through Hagel’s philosophical approach to history and underpinned his argument that Trump is an important figure by integrating Schilling’s “Stratergy of Conflict” into his argument, Judis picks out instances of the president disrupting the Rules Based Order through an  America First agenda (tariffs, Greenland and attempts to humiliate Europe and Canada). – and argues Trump has created a narrative that undermines agreements guaranteeing peace, economic stability and advances in science. In siting Hagel, Judis characterised Trump as a “ political man of action” who has created a political argument  and changed how international and economic crisis will be managed in the future- in much the same way Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon changed the perspective of the world. I am not sure whether Judis would defend his thesis in academic circles, press his arguments on journalists or even believes his own thesis that Trump has the same place in history as “Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar or Napoleon,” and I am still not sure how to approach Judis article, and admittedly I am very confused how I could be so wrong about Trump – a man Judis argues  -is a “once in a generation […] figure” and is in the process of changing the historical perspective of mankind.

Maybe it is because I am British and we don’t take anybody to seriously- (unless of course we are attending their funeral), but each point Judis makes carefully curates a fiction of Trump and places him on a pedestal for his adventure in the Arabian Gulf, which Judis argues will cement Trump’s place historically.  I must admit that I was left feeling Judis thesis wouldn’t be out of place in a Monty Python sketch – on intelligence fuck ups – president’s to close to the fantasies of an Israeli prime minister and the illusion that air superiority could augment regime change,   

I am not sure who had the presidents ear for Epic Fury, but his jackbooted attempt to manage the narrative of this war – demonstrated his advisers had no conceptual understanding of Middle East culture, etiquette, diplomacy, history or the importance of Persian sovereignty on the mindset of the vast majority of Iranians, (however much they hate the theological state).  

Instead of reaching for Hagel, my go to book for insanity, power and corruption – is Christopher Marlowe’s “Doctor Faustus’, written in 1588. Marlowe explores a world that is not that far from Trump’s own world – a world of wealth, power, greed, corruption, fantasy and an unavoidable pact with the devil.  I am not to sure whether this narrative will go down well with the American reader, but there is so much in Marlowe’s ‘Dr Faustas’ that reminds me of Trump, – his manipulation of facts, his fantasies, his greed and a world of spell-binding technology. (Faustus turns a bale of hay into a horse – much the same way Trump created his own crypto currency, and “US air power bringing about regime change –  is all as illusionary as Faustus horse being anything other than a bale of hay”

Like Marlowe, I am probably going to upset a lot of people comparing Faustus to Trump, but the thought that Trump has any conceptual understanding of what he is doing on the international stage – is at best questionable and at worst frightening. Throughout the week  Trump has tried to bully the Iranians,  he has tried to make a bargain,  pleaded with the Islamic government and finally – at wits end – written an expletive laden post on Truth Social threatening the “end of a great civilization.”

In all good tales, a last minute reprieve for the Iranians came from the White House and was presented by the Pakistani government as a compromise that could bring Operation Epic Fury to an end. The talks starting this weekend between the Iranians and Americans are complex and demand a certain amount of compromise from both sides, but like anything in this war there are spoilers, one being Israel and the other is the fragmentation of the Iranian state and questions of who has power. 

For a long time, I have felt that there has been a fragmentation of power in Iran and the voices that could once be depended on are no longer alive. The idea that the speaker of parliament Qalibaf – a former Revolutionary Guard, close confident to the elite and a recognisable establishment figure, is seen by the US as someone they can establish a relationship with. But his authority was challenged last night by claims, counter claims and assertions of who Iran would send to Pakistan, and how they would position themselves to negotiate an end to this war. In the end it took the combined voice of Qalibaf and Pezeshkian to signal that they controlled the Iranian narrative and Abbas Aragchi would be sent to Pakistan.  

The conformity of the state before the war was underpinned by the Supreme Leader controlling the narrative the state wanted to project. Parliament – third tier at best -, was a soundboard integrating the voice of the supreme leader, theocratic elite and the IRGC to thrash out the arguments of the theological leadership and IRGC, pass a coherent law that would be signed off by Khamenei. But without a supreme leader (Khamenei jr, is rumoured to be in Moscow receiving treatment), parliament last night controlled the narrative, with Pezeshkian and Qalibaf, signalling a power shift from the theocracy to the IRGC and parliament. 

But through the night and into this morning -press conferences and reports on Iranian television, demands by spokesmen and attempts by different offices to control the narrative of this weekends talks in Pakistan, has led to questions of leadership and the tone texture and narrative that will be developed by the elite to expand on arguments of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, taxes on ships passing through the strait, reparations for the war and Lebanon being part of the ceasefire agreement have all been aired in one way or another. But the voices of the elite that were once unified and didn’t dare break rank before the war are pushing to be heard … meaning there is a fragmentation of the elite, with a new cadre promoted into the ruling elite, is leading to confusing signals that lead to questions of how fragmented is the leadership of the state?

Netanyahu, (I will let you ponder on who he is in Faustus) is extraordinarily divisive. Netanyahu’s arguments at times feed into  elements of his cabinets extreme arguments that just don’t span the history of Israel from 1949, but biblically manipulate 2000 years of history to claim their heritage beyond the internationally recognised border of the state. Feeding into the complexities of his partners in government, Netanyahu’s extraordinary manipulation of history, facts and political arguments are in some ways childish and others extraordinary… his fantasy to attack Iran has been an agenda he has pushed internationally -in the UN and with every president’- for the past twenty-five years. 

But Netanyahu’s understanding of who he is – ranges from a characterisation biblical place in the leadership of the state, and in the same biblical argument believes he is the only person that can save the state of Israel from  Armageddon. (All Israelis have a fatalistic belief that a catastrophe will strike the state. (As an Israeli historian explained to me –  “history comes back on itself and the mistakes of the past are eventually repeated”) 

But it is Netanyahu’s political beliefs that appear to be unreadable…. I am not sure if anybody knows what he believes, but his ruthlessness, ambition and determination to stay in power however ugly his cabinets arguments are… has led to court cases arguing he has stolen, taken bribes and charges of corruption and an International warrant has been issued for war crimes that took place between 2023 and 2024

Thin skinned, ideologically corrupt and with a need to stay in power – Netanyahu’s arguments and those of his cabinet are extreme, he does not attempt to compromise politically except to hold power, his government does not adhere to the norms of international law, peace agreements are undermined without a second thought and state intelligence is manipulated to fit an acceptable format for public consumption. (hence the bombing of Lebanon throughout the 2025 -2026 ceasefire, land seizures, killings in the West Bank and Gaza and Netanyahu’s aggressive portrayal of Erdogen as being a leader of a radical Islamic government in Turkey). 

Does this explain Israel’s aggressive push into Lebanon-not really. Netanyahu is following the same argument that has haunted Israel since the 1980s, when Begin ordered the army into Lebanon to disarm the PLO, which led to the slaughter of unarmed Palestinians in the refugee camps Sabra and the Shatila, accusations of torture by the IDF and its proxies, loss of soldiers and the wars unpopularity with the electorate. But Israels invasion was also the catalyst to the creation of Hezbollah as a politically powerful and effective proxy of the Iranian state underpinning its presence in Lebanon as a power beyond state control.    

Michael Young, at the start of the 2026 war in Lebanon, believed Israel’s attack and push into Lebanon would end the dominance of Hezbollah among its supporters and end the threat of its armed wing to the Lebanese state.  But unlike the operation in 2025. which decapitated the leadership,degraded the capabilities of the armed wing by the IDF and Mossad, Hezbollah is a different beast in 2026. It has rebuilt, most of its armed capabilities. re-equipped and been retrained by the IRGC and is said to receive $50 million a month from the Iranian state (The$50 million a month… is conjecture rather than fact).

The Lebanese government have tried to control the war from the outset and as a purely technocratic government, it has been brave enough with the support of parliamentarians to instruct Hezbollah to disarm, begin a dialogue with Israel and demanded the Iranian ambassador leave the country. However, Israel has doubled-down on its demand for the Lebanese government to order the security forces to disarm Hezbollah, it has ethnically cleared the south of the country-forcing refugees north without resources or support. The IDF have continued to target Hezbollah suspects in tented shelters and populated areas leading to casualties and deaths of the refugees and Lebanese not affiliated with Hezbollah.

There is an intractability to the crisis in the Middle East, but like all past presidents in the last fifty plus years – the Middle East has been a headache for every president from Nixon dealing with the oil embargo,  to the failure of Clinton’ to act on his promise to bring peace, Obama ending the horror of 9/11 by ordering the end of Bin Laden – every presidents for fifty years has had to manage a crisis in the Middle East.  But Trump’s 2026 adventure in the Arabian Gulf is a self-inflicted wound that has failed in its objective to change Iran for good, destroy the nuclear enrichment sites again and destroy or at least degrade the manufacturing facilities of rockets and drones. Hegel does not quite cut it for me to explain the arguments that drive this president and Operation Epic Fury place in the historical canon. But I would reread Marlowe and his morality tale of a man who could not resist the promise of wealth, knowledge and power, which could explains the disaster to the world economy with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the survival of the IRGC and theocratic cabal controlling the narrative the Iranian state wants to write. And I would dispute the Trump whisperers, intelligence analysts and politicians who spoiled for this war and John B Judis argument that Trump  should be elevated historically to the heady heights of a leader who changed the world…. rather than one who miscalculated on his aims, objectives and geopolitical arguments that should have been factored into the brief given to the president….rather than being cheered on by one more sycophant …….