Current Affairs

In 2022 – it was five hundred – that was the number dead declared after the Mahsa Amini demonstrations. That number was significant, it was a number the Ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard elite could settle on as a statement of power – a number that was not high enough for the outside world to be horrified, but a number the authorities thought trivial enough to cement their authority. The claimed five hundred killed does not tell the whole story, it was a story of mass murder, torture – culpable acts that led to arguments of suicide – Basiji thugs with ‘the freedom of god’ hauled young pretty women into buildings where they were beaten, degraded, raped and pushed from roof tops. Other demonstrators had their heads caved in by steel bars and rifle butts, (causing serious injuries and brain damage). Basiji shot wildly into crowds and the judiciary systematically passed death sentences on demonstrators who had threatened the executive power of the Revolutionary Guard and theocratic elite by standing on the street screaming “woman, life freedom,” in memory of Massa Amini who had been murdered by the morality police.

So what exactly does the regime believe it can achieve, when there will be a succession process once the supreme leader dies. Will it be a succession where repressive mechanisms such as the Basiji threaten death to anyone who speaks out or a judiciary that executes the masses for civil disobedience. Will those killed by the regime be continually laid out in the open and warehouses waiting for families to claim their bodies. Will the country be further isolated with internet blackouts, communication monitored and the masses isolated from the world by a corrupt elite within the theocracy and Revolutionary Guard?

It is now 2026, the Revolutionary Guard, Ayatollahs and government have once again survived mass demonstrations. The total dead is in the thousands, bodies are laid out in the open to be identified and once again the regime is blaming outside forces for those demonstrating against an economy that has depreciated by eighty percent and a corrupt Republican Guard, theocracy and government elite that has mismanaged the environment, economy and the states mineral wealth. The demonstrations did not only happen in Tehran, there were demonstrations across the country and the orders given by the repressive mechanisms of the state were the same – kill the most vulnerable, ensure their deaths are remembered and ensure voices are suppressed by an internet and social media blackout.  

The judiciary is already moving to repress voices, the first arrested are being given death sentences and the full force of the state is behind the murder of those who took to the streets. Bodies have been piled on the streets and in warehouses to be collected by those brave enough to identify their family member and the state controlled television services are publicising every minute of sadness the families feel. Khamenei’s declaration on the 12^th January 2026, was the catalyst to the state repressing voices that had demonstrated for the freedom to speak out. The internet is blocked, social media cut off and voices that have spoken out were damned in a televised speech by Ayatollah Khamenei arguing that the theocracy is fighting against the proxies of the United States.

Trump has told the people of Iran to hold on, stand and fight against the mechanisms that have so far repressed voices. He has said that the US is looking for a way forward where there will be help for the protesters and believes he can foment a revolution against the regime. Trump has warned against the judicial execution of those given death sentences and the repressive mechanisms arresting those the forces of the Iranian state believe are part of the demonstrations, he says will be met by US resources.

Trump’s favourite mechanism – tariffs – are to be set at twenty five percent for any state doing business with Iran. Arguments are being formulated by intelligence services to manage the theocracy and Revolutionary guard, there is talk of economic sanctions coming from countries that have already sanctioned the Iranian state and arguments that Iran’s embassies should be shuttered are coming to the fore in commentary across media platforms in the West.  

There are arguments to systematically starve the Iranian state of resources through targeted attacks on the Iranian states mineral wealth. There is talk of targeted attacks which will further destroy the states economy and there are arguments of once again moving international forces into the Gulf. But the formulations of the West has been offset by arguments coming from the Iranian state that it could withstand any sanction, any military attack and that it would respond against its enemies forcefully.

But the formulaic damnation of the regime is a question that has vexed the leaders of Western states that have tried to control the excesses of the Iranian regime before, there have been arguments for the regime to be isolated, the economy to be squeezed and Iran’s mineral wealth sanctioned. But it is the argument that the Iranian state is already a zombie state that is being held together by elite forces of the state determined to underpin the Ayatollahs edicts as part of their own self interests.

With each demonstration there has been a pull back by the states forces determined to manage the state and its governance. The show trials and determination of the judiciary to crack down hard on the demonstrators are arguments within an hardline elite to manage the masses. But there are forces within the state that realise the weakness of the regimes arguments and there is push back against the hardline elements of the state, however these arguments take time to formulate and the elites immediate concern is to shut down dissent and to do this they execute those it believes were the catalyst to the arguments that led to the demonstrations.

It was the market traders in Tehran and elsewhere that were angered by the depreciation of the currency by fifty percent, so there is no surprise that a trader would be the first voice that would be executed by the state. The repressive mechanisms of the state determined to suppress the van-guard that had risen up against the Shah in 1979, is also a sign that the governance of the Iranian states elite has been rattled. It is a mercantile class that the elite are punishing, which has led to the death sentence being passed on Erfan Soltani and is also a realisation that the state is on the precipice of losing the support of a mercantile class that was at the forefront of the 1979 revolution.

In many ways it is a sign that the economy is in more trouble than realised and the states immediate concern is to underpin the authority of the theocracy and Revolutionary Guard through setting an example and shoring up the regime through justifying their governance with the execution of a merchant and intimidating a mercantile class that was at the forefront of the 1979 revolution. It is also a sign that the foundations of the state are beginning to crumble and the Revolutionary Guard, Ayatollahs and the governing elite have underpinned their thuggery through arguing the demonstrations were externally linked, rather than a failure of the governance of the state to manage an economy that has stagnated and a currency that has depreciated by fifty percent.

What Iran does next is critical to the voices that want change. The structural identity of the state is being challenged and the elite is cornered by an economy that is not functioning. It is the widespread voices that have challenged the Ayatollahs, Revolutionary Guard and a political elite that have mismanaged the state and arguments by the masses for change are being undone by security forces murdering the voices arguing for change. But it will be the remnants of the cabal that had run the state once Khamenei is gone that will be challenged by voices for change. Whether outside forces can change the direction the Iranian state will take, will be determined by arguments that have been well practised since the 1979 revolution.

re-edited 20/012026