Current Affairs

Christmas newsletter

House-keeping.  I am sorry for not writing in the last month and half, but I have been re-appraising whether to continue writing articles. In the past month I have introduced an AI bot and I am experimenting with a new type of output, which will come out later in the year when the finance comes through for the projects I am working on.

Summary of 2025

This year marked the end of seven wars according to Trump…. “amazing none of these wars were redacted!!!”

On the release of the Epstein files, no names were released, only Clinton, Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and those who could be used as a buffer by Trump. The essence of all that could incriminate those on Epstein’s jet, Island and New York mansion have become a list of who’s who on pages redacted and a list of possibilities. Trump continues to deny that he had any meetings with Epstein, but there is so much conjecture about Trumps relationship with Epstein that it would be better if Trump detailed his meetings with Epstein – in the hope that MAGA supporters would begin focussing on who the foundational fathers of the deep state are and who MAGA can link the files to.

Of course it is to early to accuse those who have been on Epstein’s list of being known associates who were part of the network that abused girls. But it is Epstein, Maxwell and these associates who are factors in the chaos wrought on the girls who had been trafficked, raped and used as a tools by the rich and powerful. This has led to the loss of the girls adolescence, the girls have lost opportunities to go to college, begin careers, had chaotic lives and some have sadly committed suicide.

There were images released last week of Clinton and Maxwell in a pool with a young girl, then there are images of Woody Allen trying to look anonymous and most shocking of all was the image of the father of liberal argument- Noam Chomsky meeting Epstein. As always none of these characters have anything proven against them (like all journalists – I have to say this, as there are lawyers on the prowl). But it was a campaign of liberal bashing by the Trump’s administration in an attempt to control the Epstein narrative, which has led to question of a cover up. But questions should be asked about two of those photographed – as they have history with very young women.

Trump tried to divert attention away from the files with the posting of an ambassador to Greenland, but the Catch 22 was that journalists and media platforms were focussed on the Epstein files. Statements Trump made about Greenland were met with a fierce determination by Denmark and the EU to scupper the ambitions of Trump’s plan, which would mean the colonisation of Greenlanders, downgrading of living standards and loss of control of the minerals extracted. Greenlanders would be second class citizens and the hard won freedoms that Greenlanders have managed to gain in the last twenty years would be reversed.

Canada has moved closer to Europe after the threats of Trump to turn the nation into another US state. Procurement contracts, which have always been negotiated between the US and Canada, have been superseded by Canada buying European military equipment. But it is Europes relationship with the US that has changed. The idea that the US is the dominant military power has been challenged geo-strategically and economically by China. The Europeans have been forced to increase spending on defence and have been challenged by the US president to accept tariffs, his and his vice presidents arguments on free speech and finance the Ukrainians defence and economy. The Trump administrations strategic review left members of NATO questioning whether the US would uphold Article 5 and there were further questions of how reliable a partner the US is to Europe.  

The seven or eight wars that Trump claims to have managed has been welcome news to the world, but conflict is still happening in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and intermittent arguments have flared across West Africa and the Sahel, where there has been instability, violence, attempted coups and insurgencies. Further north there has been a modicum of stability in Libya and North Africa, but there are rumblings in Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began with the self-immolation of a market trader, which has been repeated numerous times by unemployed graduates. Furthermore there have been demonstrations by the unemployed, students and Unions against the autocratic government of Kais Saide and with the police holding the line for time being, the government is managing to hold on with an economy that is close to collapse.

Egypt has become an integral voice in the conflict between Israel and Hamas and talks to manage the future of the Gaza strip are taking place in Egypt. The all out conflict between Israel and Hamas has become a complicated argument in how Trump’s twenty point plan should be implemented. Israel has had a busy year, finally moving on Hezbollah, degrading the Syrian air defences and bombing Iran. The possibilities for the Middle East to move toward a more dynamic peace and coexistence can be attributed to Trump’s push for the twenty point peace plan to work, which potentially manages outcomes elsewhere in the Middle East. Israel and Lebanon have come to an agreement on the border of the eastern Mediterranean and how the mineral wealth will be divided, Commercially the states have begun a dialogue that could be extended into a future relationship between the two states and negotiations on the integrity of Lebanon’s southern border.

Syria has had its first year of independence from the Assad dictatorship, but the state is yet to manage the full resources, borders and different ethnic groups dividing the state and its governance. The extreme elements of the new regime have put down rebellions, but there have been wide scale reports of massacres, settling of scores and looting by the Syrian Democratic Forces. Syria is till divided in the north, Kurdish forces are in negotiation with the state, but there is pressure on the Kurds from Turkey, which is pushing the regime in Damascus to negotiate at pace. There are also pockets of the Islamic State still operating in the border area between Syria and Iraq, and after the killing of two US soldiers and a Syrian interpreter from the government, the US in retaliation bombed and killed a number of ISIS operatives.

But it is the stabilisation of the Syrian economy that has vexed Syria’s president Al Sharaa, US aid is no longer an option and funds from Europe, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have not reached expectation. The country needs $60-100 billion to rebuild the economy, bring back Syrians living in Europe, Turkey, Lebanon and the Gulf and begin the process of assimulating the different ethnicities into a stable economy that is rebuilding homes, infrastructure and new institutions.

The Saudi’s and Gulf have been investing in their own economies through AI, but outside forces are pushing the relationship in the Gulf to breaking point. The war in Yemen has continued to evolve, UAE support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC) taking of the oil fields and land on the border of Oman has been met with anger by the Saudis. Speaking to the Guardian Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House said “so far Saudi Arabia has tried strategic patience, but I do not think that will last. It does not mean that it will necessarily go into a direct war with the UAE in Yemen.” Furthermore, the argument whether Yemen should revert to two states, a North and South Yemen is being challenged by Europe and the STC have to negotiate with the Houthis, who are dependent on the Iranian regime that is supplying it with the weapons and finance to fight the war with the STC and as the last member of Iran’s axis, is still sending missiles into Israel .

The conflict Trump claims to have solved is the conflict between Pakistan and India, though denied that Trump had any input in the cessation conflict by India, Trump placed 50% tariffs on the state for poo poing Trump’s claims. But Pakistan has an improved relationship with the US and though the state is leveraged to the hilt to China, the US believes it can re-calibrate its relationship with the government.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan have been recognised by a single state, which is Russia. There have been skirmishes, pitched battles on the border with Pakistan and the Pakistan government has bombed Kabul. The Taliban have had further skirmishes with Tajikistan border guards, soldiers and Chinese miners on the border have been killed. Whether the Taliban forces were involved is still unclear, though the Tajik government are demanding that Taliban forces withdraw from the border and apologise for the incursion. The Taliban claim that the Tajik government are supporting the Northern Alliance and though Turkmenistan has tried to mediate between the two sides, they too face insecurity from Turkic rebels moving across the Afghan border.

Myanmar continues to be fragmented, which is very much playing into the hands of the Chinese government, which is extracting minerals in rebel held areas and at the same time arming the government in its ongoing conflict with the different ethnic groups, civilians and students fighting the government. There is very little sign of negotiations and the military government continues to conscript soldiers to act as canon fodder for the military government (Tatndaw) to continue the war.

Thailand and Cambodia, a war that Trump argues he solved continue to have border skirmishes, which has also led to the resignation of the Thai prime minister, after a conversation was recorded between the Thai prime minister and her Cambodian counter part went viral. The uncertainty and blaming for the conflict is because the war keeps flaring – as there are no set borders between the two countries. The once porous border where Cambodians and Thai workers frequently passed through borders without officials stamping passports, has become a war zone where Thai and Cambodian artillery frequently shell villages and military positions has led to a refugee exodus from the border regions in both Thailand and Cambodia.

There has been a rapprochement between South Korea and Japan. Talks are ongoing and the talks are exploring an alliance between South Korea and Japan both economically and militarily. The idea of a united front between South Korea and Japan is very much a reaction to the unpredictability of the US approach to Asia, whuch has led to the determination of both countries to strengthen their military – because of an unpredictabile US presidency. China continues to dominate the conversation in Japan and South Korea and both countries aim to manage the Asian region because of the region has become unpredictable and the geopolitical change in the region due to the dominance of a Chinese political narrative, aggression in the South China Sea, territorial disputes with Japan, North Korea’s sabre rattling and uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait and China’s demand for the re-integration of territory that China claims

Xi Jinping continues to sabre rattle across the Taiwan Strait, which has led to questions of US intentions in the region and whether US armed forces could be drawn into a conflict with the Chinese state if it invaded Taiwan. But the uncertainty of US military doctrine in Asia is being challenged by China’s continued military build up and sparring with the Taiwanese defences. It is Xi Jinpings determination to draw Taiwan into a conflict that is challenging the geopolitical arguments in Washington and its strategic role and the potential conflict in the region. But the Chinese navy and military have been challenged by purges, which led to senior military officers being removed and junior officers who replaced the senior officers were also purged on charges of corruption.

The sabre rattling and military parade in Beijing reaffirmed China’s relationship with Russia and North Korea. Xi Jinping’s close relationship with Putin telegraphed China’s reliance on cheap Russian oil and in return the Chinese state has provided the machinery, technical support and close relationship with the Russian state, military technically and physically.

Trump’s push for Asia and Europe to increase spending to 5% of GDP on defence, has been widely welcomed by the hawks in Asia and Europe. But it has also been the US geopolitical outlook that has changed and with the US questioning its roles in Asia and Europe. The withdrawal of the US from agreements that have guaranteed military stability since the end of the second world war, has challenged states that had a close relationship with the US in both the economic and geopolitical fields has challenged these alliances. The US approach to regional tensions in Asia and the conflict in Europe, has led to Asian and European allies uncertain of the US approach to international developments, economic argument, the rules based argument and the US military approach internationally.

Finally, the US has significantly cut US Aid – and further cuts in international aid from Europe and the United Kingdom have degraded health care facilities, NGOs and vaccine programmes. Diseases like tuberculosis, cholera typhoid and auto-immune disease are becoming more prevalent and the few resources supporting the NGOs have failed to combat these diseases. It has been reported that there has been an increase in infant mortality, malnutrition and poverty that has stressed the resources Aid organisations and NGO’s could once relie on. The Congo, Sudan and Sahel have witnessed conflicts between opposing geopolitical players for the resources of the states, and the intractability of these wars has meant outside forces are supplying the finance to strip the mineral wealth from nations weakened by insurgency. In Nigeria farmers and herdsmen are in conflict because of climate change. Uncertain security in the state has magnified this secratarianism and the military have used their resources to manage the conflict. But climate change has meant decreasing resources on the edge of the Sahara and the conflict between farmers and herders has morphed into bandatry and kidnappings of school children. The conflict between the two opposing arguments has displaced villagers and has stressed aid agencies and NGO’s who have had to prioritise their resources in managing the displaced.

For all Trump’s bragging that he has stopped seven or eight wars, the world is ever more dangerous to live in. Conflicts in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia are all part of the uncertainty of the arguments coming from the White House. The geopolitical uncertainty of the world order is being underpinned by uncertain arguments from the United States and China’s new confidence in its economic, strategic and military capabilities. The old order is moving towards fragmenting because of the contradictory arguments coming from the White House and the predictability of international arguments are being undone by the unpredictability of a presidency that is becoming increasingly unpredictable.