The miracle of Lebanon is that it did not de-generate into the mess of the 1970s and 1980s. The Lebanese security forces have managed a crisis through extraordinary diplomacy even though it has been starved of funding by a political class that has been driven by infighting. Parliament has managed to elect a new government, which is taking tough decisions to manage an economy and currency that collapsed, a refugee crisis, a man made disaster in the port in Beirut, a Covid pandemic, Hezbollah fighting a war with Israel and uncertain security on Lebanons southern border
It is easy to characterise that the disaster Lebanon faced has been inflicted on itself, but the peace treaties of the 1990s should be treated with suspicion as the state and political class, (which has been ineffective) has been determined by arguments of internal factions and outside actors who have placed internal pressure on these religious factions.
The Taif Accord was meant to bring a sense of stability, but the interests of countries such as Syria, Iran, Saudia Arabia and the West pushed and pulled these sectarian groups into different spheres of argument. The argument of how and where the state began and where the factions stood has empowered the grievances of the parties determined to corrupt any outcome or any agreement that was non-inclusive. The empowerment of voices with arsenals has been central to the argument of state players and the failure to manage political outcomes through dialogue corrupted not only the state but also the banking sector.
In 2024 after five years of the economy contracting due to the banking crisis, the government managed to build a surplus on its books through tax revenue. The belief that the state had managed a surplus was offset by the realisation that the state had contracted by a further 7.1% with government spending at 14.7% below the revenue gathered by the state. But the reality is that the state is a tax collector without being the investor in the economy. Stipends are king, with the degrading of the Lebanese Lira by the financial crisis, there has been a realisation that the states security has been dependent on the good will of the security forces.
That goodwill has at times been difficult to fathom, when a salary for a member of the LAF before the economic crisis was $900 – is today with the depreciation of the Lebanese Lira sitting at $90 per month. Out of all the state actors, it is the security forces that are holding the state together, not through force but diplomacy and necessity, they have found ways to manage the forces within the state through negotiations, arguments and determinants that at times must seem unpalatable and though unpalatable the security forces have managed these forces that challenged communities well being.
It is truly miraculous that the states security forces have managed the different parties that could have rocked the state and though the politicians have pushed and pulled their arguments to include ethnic difference, the state forces have managed to stabilise any outcomes determined by these political forces, such as the blast in Beirut harbour.
Then there are outside arguments coming thick and fast, whether it is Israel (which is now the main power in the region) or the United States, the Lebanese armed forces have kept a cool head and managed to stand tall and grieve when members of the army have been killed by drones, shelling or targeted attacks. The LAF have kept the peace and managed to keep agreements alive by keeping the south of Lebanon stable when Israel is bombing, strafing and using drones to manage areas of South Lebanon in its control.
The ideas of US senators arguing for confrontation with Hezbollah, however much they have been degraded, tells you that there is a lack of understanding in how much their argument challenges the Lebanese security apparatus and new government, which is under massive pressure from the US to comply with the wishes of Israel.
Previously the Lebanese state had been the vassal of Syria, its politicians riven by sectarian rivalry though the Taif accord afforded a deal between the opposing ethnic groups. The assassination of Harirri led to tension between the Sunni and Shiite factions both within parliament and the community. This sectarian difference led to tension in communities and though there was a need for investment in the poorer communities in Lebanon, the politicians exaggerated the budget of the state and through heavy borrowing from the banks, the liquidity of the state was compromised by corruption, state indifference, a failure to reign in that borrowing and what one outside banker called a ponzi scheme.
With the collapse of the banks, there has been a collapse in investment in the infrastructure of the state, so basic amenities such as electricity, health and welfare have all collapsed. Professionals have left the state as the economy and utilities collapsed, and with the port explosion in Beirut there have been demonstrations against a political class that proved ineffective at managing the crisis. The sectarianism of the state saved the political class as the power brokers (Syria and especially Hezbollah) broke up the demonstrators who demanded a government that ruled through a popular vote, but due to the pressures placed on different ethnic groups, the popular vote failed to gain many seats.
The new government is a compromise like all governments before it, but it has technocrats determined to get Lebanon out of the mess that it is in. Though the economy is managing to reflect the potential of the state, the halving of the national debt has been disastrous for those who stayed in Lebanon. The old infirm and weak have had to depend on remittances from their relatives and the state is still in negotiations with the IMF to get a loan to bail out the banking sector. Lebanon is currently offering 60% returns for the depositors, six years after the banking crisis in order to placate those who have lost money due to the illiquidity of the Lebanese banks.
There have been further changes to the economy, but the main focus has been on the banks, (which the politicians have their own interest ) to get them up and running again. The government have revised the banks secrecy laws and put in place management plans for the state not to interfere in the banks future, but what is needed most is an IMF bailout so the banks have the liquidity to invest in small, medium sized and large business’.
The stresses on the Lebanese state and the plutocracy of the state is the refugee crisis. With the refugee crisis stressing the state, there have been calls for the repatriation of Syrians, the voices calling for the repatriation challenges the United Nations that pays for the refugees basic needs. Though there are some Lebanese who support the Syrian refugees, there are large parts of society who have supported efforts to repatriate the refugees back to Syria.
Though the United Nations have provided money to repatriate refugees who want to go back to Syria, there is a realisation the Syrian state is in an economic crisis, which cannot take the returnees back into the Syrian state as the houses they once lived in have been sold by the Assad regime, the country has been destroyed by war and insecurity with different factions still challenging the security of the state and farmers returning to their land have been affected by a serious drought.
Furthermore, Assad loyalists are now refugees and have flooded the camps and the property market. They have also brought with them the mechanics of the Assad economy and flooded the borders with narcotics, mainly Captogan being produced in new labs in Lebanon and crossing borders into Europe and Middle East. Though the LAF have secured the borders to a degree, there is competition between smugglers and Hezbollah to move the Captogan out of the state into the wider Middle East.
Lebanon is unique, it has faced down a banking crisis that has led to inflationary pressures on the state and rather than breakdown into a violent crisis (Haiti) the Lebanese security forces have managed the stresses on the Lebanese state. The demands for the disarmament of proxy forces in the Lebanese state has led to the disarmament of the Palestinian refugees, where truckloads of weapons were taken away and destroyed. The pressure to disarm Hezbollah by the LAF has been intense and with US Senators making immediate demands on the state to disarm Hezbollah, has been met with assurances by the LAF and Lebanese government that it is negotiating with this proxy force, which for a country that is fragmented is the only choice that the country can make.
Bibliography
https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/314980-graham-says-plan-b-should-be-disarming-hezbollah-by-force
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