Current Affairs

Its not easy assessing the situation in Syria, but the facts are very easy to manage if you are cynical. The idea that Aleppo, Hama and possibly Homs have fallen is a significant factor in the analysis of the war. But the question is what has happened to the Syrian army that it capitulated so quickly in the north and centre of Syria. The clue this is not quite such a predictable war – is that a lot of the war is to do with the Israeli bombing and missile strikes on IRGC targets across Syria.

“Whatever you do, don’t rent to an Iranian,” is on the lips of every landlord in Damascus. This strange argument is a lot to do with the war between Hezbollah, Hamas and Israel. The conflict between Israel and the IRGC took off after the slaughter of Israelis by Hamas, which has led to a conflict being fought out between Iranian proxies and the Israelis in Syria. There is nowhere to hide for the IRGC or Hezbollah in Syria, which has been well documented. In doing so Israel has weakened the Syrian army and enabled the rebels to gain a footing in the battles that have taken place.

There are always consequences in battles being fought out in a region and the idea that the war in Syria had been contained was a reason that Russia moved assets out of the Syrian war zone. Wagner no longer exists, nor is there an alternative to Wagner at the moment in the Syria because Russian assets are being concentrated on Ukraine. So the idea that the Russian’s can move troops from one zone to another is a challenging problem for the Kremlin and may be a reason that the Russian Foreign Ministry has issued an order for Russians to get out of Syria.

Russia has tried to find a solution to the crisis in Syria and in 2022, the Russian state placed pressure on Damascus to open talks with Ankara. More than this they tried to push the intransigent Assad into dialogue with the rebels. Türkiye seen as an important voice in Syria, has put sanctions on Russia because of US pressure and supplied drones to the Ukrainians. Russian business have been sanctioned and Banks have stopped taking Russian business. The difficult relationship that Russia has with Türkiye has not stopped the state from trying to get a peace deal signed between Ankara and Damascus, but the intransigence of Assad has led nowhere.

Though Assad is intransigent when it comes to dealing directly with Türkiye, Ruslan Sulymanov writing in Carnegie believes doors will open for direct talks because of the pressure the rebels are placing on Damascus politically and militarily. Whether this is true or not the assets that have been lost in this war by the Syrian army means they will be talking from a weak position and if the army do crumble then the war will be over.

The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan after talks with Abbas Araghchi the Iranian foreign minister, said that they had agreed to resume diplomatic efforts to restore the equilibrium in Syria. He argued that “recent developments show that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition.” But HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani in an interview with CNN said that “ when we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of the regime.”

Whether talks are possible with the regional powers involved remains questionable. The Iranian’s have promised Assad all the help the Syrian state needs, but geopolitically Hezbollah has been weakened, proxies from Iraq are struggling and members of the IRGC are being targeted by the Israelis. Furthermore the Russian are struggling to fight on two fronts, but promise to escalate their war machine in Syria.

There is also a report that high interest rates (23%) in Russia has led to the armament industry not being able to export to war zones, and the interest rate rise by the Central Bank has led to arms manufacturers holding onto revenue, banking the money and waiting for returns before building the equipment needed for the battles raging across Ukraine, Syria and the Sahel. As a consequence the Russian military machine is stretched because of the financial crisis in Russia. Whether Russia can challenge the status quo set by inflation has been a factor in the states inability to push on geopolitical events because the economic arguments are a significant factor.

Though the doors in the Middle East have been opened for the Assad regime, there is an element of support for the rebel offensive. Mohammed Bin Salman who signed an agreement with the Syrian regime in 2023, is yet to make a comment. But the argument of whether the rebels are influenced by Al Qaeda has led to questions of what sort of regime would the rebels bring to the Syrian people. There is mass movement away from the areas that have been taken because of fear of the type of government that will be put in place in areas that have been taken. Christians are especially wary of the HTS, who the US and Europe have designated as a terrorist group. But reports coming from the war zone have not indicated that there have been practices that equate the groups with the arcane.

The argument of the Syrian regime are still just as divisive as they have always been. It is very much the same arguments that split the popular uprising that began in 2012 and turned the argument into one of sectarianism. As the rebels move south they are coming into the heartlands of Assad supporters the Alawites, and the support of this sect is crucial to Assad and the regime. But if Homs is taken-the country is split and the Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia are isolated.

But it is the failure of Assad to strengthen the state when he had power to manoeuvre. But Syria is broke and became a narco state that was held together by a black market, which fed off the corruption of senior officials, which has challenged the Syrian economy. But it was very much the fact that Syria had become a vassal state to Iran and Hezbollah, who had become the elite which alienated Syrian’s from the regime.

Whether the Assad regime survives the push by the free Syrian forces, challenges where Russia and Iran will be in the next phase of the war. Though Tartus and Latakia are free from the war, the questions that will be asked over the next few years is very much at the forefront of the geopolitical make up of the Middle East. If the rebels push onwards and take Damascus and force the Assad family out of the country, then there will be a revision of Iranian influence in the Middle East and a push back of Iran from the arguments that had empowered the state across the Middle East. But the idea of Hezbollah surviving into the future without Syria is very much an open question, which will be answered in the forever power battles that take place politically in Lebanon. The demographics of the map delineating the geopolitical make up of this area will be forever changed if the free Syrian forces take more of the state.