Current Affairs

The rules based order is moving into an uncertain period. The ideas of liberal democracy is also under threat with the movement of the US towards the unpredictability of its presidency, but the ideas and arguments that have kept the western world above the political machinations of the authoritarians has led to states that have been free of these arguments, which now have to reappraise how they manage democratic argument.

Germany is moving into an uncertain period, the coalition has collapsed and the point scoring has begun. Chancellor Sholz is now head of a minority government and the Christian Democrats are demanding a new government and elections in the new year. But the arguments are not whether the coalition stands a hope, but with an electorate up in arms about the economy and questions about the direction the state is heading. If elections were called tomorrow, then the Liberal Party would be facing annihilation polling just above 17 percent. The Greens are also in trouble, they are polling just above the 10 percent mark and both parties trail the AfD, the populist right wing party who after a number of scandals are polling just below their earlier standing of 22%.

But the unpredictability of polls was demonstrated in the American elections, where there was consensus that the race between Kamala Harris and Trump would be tight. Though the election moved within the tolerance of the exit polls, the reality is that the polls were not as clear cut as thought and Trump went on to win a large majority. The fear is that the AfD will poll at more than 19 percent and if they better that- then there are arguments that Germany is moving into a period of uncertainty.

The same argument could be seen in the French elections, where the main parties gerrymandered an outcome that led to an alliance of parties taking on the right wing. Whether Germany has reached this stage of election management is questionable, but in all likelihood if the CDU do not win an outright majority, they will be forced into a coalition, which like the present coalition would be dependent on a minority party.

The problems Germany face are mainly centred on an economy,which is stagnant and needs modernising. The argument that the ruling coalition had was whether to bring in tax breaks or increase the national debt. The minority partner in the coalition led by Christian Linder the Finance Minister, argued that the state should take a more conservative approach to the economy with tax breaks rather than government investment. There is consensus among voters that it was very much part of Chancellor Scholz’s leadership style that led to the breakup of the coalition. Others believe that Scholz was courageous as Germany is at a turning point, where the economy needs a “radical change”.

Herdwig Richter, professor of history at the University of the Federal Armed Forces believes that the government is not taking the necessary steps to bring growth into the economy, the elements that worry the government most are not the economy or the war in Ukraine, but the opinion polls, which have placed pressure on the senior member of the coalition and President Scholz himself. The failure to realise the opinion polls are transient has destabilised the governing coalition and its partners. Though the initial argument of Scholz was accepted, his failure to follow through with his argument has intensified the failure of the Liberal Party to manage the outcome of a dramatic announcement that was supported by an electorate if polls are to believed.

Herdwig Richter in a DW interview argues that it is a question of change in Germany and to manage that change then Germany will have to “embrace” both an ecological and security policy in its immediate future. She puts the blame on Angelka Merkles government, which rather than modernise the state sat back and managed the state in its current form, rather than take the necessary risks to develop a future for the 21^st century.

Of course there are other arguments, but ultimately it is a question of Germany returning either to a more conservative government or a risk in the form of the Liberals and Greens. The questions are whether Germany will modernise its armed forces and industry to move the economy forward. It is really a defining moment in Germany’s political landscape and though Germany as an economy is coming out of the recession caused by Covid and the war in Ukraine that little bit stronger as an economy, there are questions that Germany needs to find answers. Marcel Fratzcher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, believes that Germany needed a Kennedy moment. “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for the country.” In other words Germany needs an inspiring politician to bring modernisation to the economy.

It is the failure of the government to inspire German’s to a green future and a modern army that is well armed and able to be at the forefront of NATO. But there is opposition to the proposed spending that is needed to modernise Germany and publications have been up in arms against the coalition, especially the Greens, who they accuse of attacking the consumer through their policies. It is the intractability of the media owners to accept that the government has to take on debt to manage growth, which is challenging the government and the failure of Chancellor Scholz to enforce his arguments rather than break up the coalition, which has led to an electorate that has moved toward the CDU and AfD.

Rather like the United States, the question among the CDU and AfD is not so much about moving Germany into the twenty first century, but keeping the status quo. Very little movement of the economy, tax breaks and in the case of the AfD questions about immigration. The CDU favour an economy that manages national debt and a continuation of the industrial plutocracy of a government that is neither invasive or modernising in its outlook. Plenty of German’s have fed into the belief that Germany needs modernising, but the difficulties Germany has faced in an economy that flatlined for the first time in seventy years, has led to German’s questioning whether they can risk modernising industry, the military and taking on more government debt.

What Germany has in store for the next ten years will be dependent on whether it modernises or not. The consensus is that the government have some tough decisions, whether it is a coalition or the CDU. But the question is whether the liberalism of the state will continue, especially if the AfD do well in an election that is likely coming in the next six months. The questions of modernising the economy, the army and the green economy are being challenged by the conservatives and a hard right that is picking up a populist mantle to fight the upcoming election.