Current Affairs

With the end of Biden comes the realisation that he has not really got a handle on the process’ that he tried to put in place for peace in the Middle East. The idea of an all powerful US in the Middle East is taking precedence to the avenues of discussion that took place before war erupted on 7th October. It is not quite as simple as Biden making dictats by arguing one way or another, but it is his failure to impose his arguments, which has elevated Netanyahu to the status of imperial warlord pulling the strings in Washington.

The red lines have come and gone, Biden’s determination to control the narrative has fallen on deaf ears in the Knesset. His red lines have been ignored and his voice weaker because the Israeli leader ignores US warnings despite the US President’s authority. The movement away from an agreed ceasefire, negotiations or the actual fate of the hostages, this war is costing both the United States and her allies the little faith that the world has in those trying to find a peaceful outcome.

The expansion of Iranian influence across the Middle East is well documented. The rise of militias is not much of a surprise, but the arguments determining America’s position in the Middle East is central to the argument coming from the White House that they will underpin Israeli adventure in Lebanon with the carriers off the coast. The end of Nasrallah was just one of the arguments that permeated through the intelligence community, but there was also a realisation that the assassination came with consequences, (though Israel has been successful at re-writing the script), but the arguments of whether Hezbollah are defeated is still a question that needs to be answered.

Biden and his envoy are very much behind the gain line, they are playing catch up to the Israeli’s arguments and aggression. Netanyahu patience for the mutterings of Biden are being undone by the Israeli Prime Minister, who reneges on agreements and then imposes his arguments through actions by the Israeli state. It is one thing to promise a ceasefire and the envoys reach out to open discussions, but it also a question of diplomacy and sovereignty that is at stake.

Biden has shown his hand time and again, his declaration that Israel was seeking approval to take out the Iranian oil fields spiked the markets by five percent. The thoughtlessness of his remark told you everything, he is not thinking about what he is arguing and the factors that make US argument are dangerously playing into the hands of the Likud hard right conservatives who are out to rationalise their influence on the White House. This is one battle that Biden needs to be wary of, but it is the failure of Biden to mull over the consequences of his arguments that is enabling and empowering those who would like to extend the scope of the war in the Middle East.

Biden’s raspy voice spits out arguments that don’t make sense, especially when the West is in a crisis of resources, he argues that striking Iranian oil supplies is an option. Is it time to remind Biden that the Strait of Hormuz is a stranglehold that not only threatens shipping but also forces the US and her allies to shore up the naval assets that will be needed to keep these shipping routes open. To a degree the Iranians control the access points to Europe through Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden. What Biden seems to forget is that this is an existential geopolitical argument that challenges its allies, and the arguments of reprisals is met with aghast at the short sightedness of those who are planning the next move. There seems to be little planning other than shoring up of US forces in the Middle East. It seems to be a one sided argument that ignores the reliance of Europe on supplies coming from the Middle East and looks out for Israeli interests instead.

So far Biden has proven himself to be a willing toy for the asinine machinations of Netanyahu, who is on a high since poll ratings approved Israel’s war in the north. But this war is taking more out of those who are not involved. The Lebanese government is between a rock and a hard place and is haemorrhaging the few assets it has on providing aid and food to the displaced. The Lebanese government will surely fall if this war goes on for sometime, especially if international financial aid is late in coming.

Whether the war between Hezbollah and the IDF is a short or long war, the consequences for the people of Lebanon is acute. Since the war in Gaza started, Israel his increased its spending by twenty percent, GDP has stagnated and the Israeli state has increased debt levels. For a state like Lebanon, which is already in economic crisis the realisation of further pressure on the economy is unbearable for the government. The Ministry of Finance argues that the levels of aid the country has to provide is unsustainable in the long term and that Lebanon is not in a position to manage the outcome of the war between Hezbollah and Israel..

Already there are two million refugees in Lebanon, the state is reeling, but the reality is that Israel is extending its scope. Areas in range of the war are now beyond the Litani river and bombing of the area is putting more pressure on the Lebanese state. The rich, Europeans and those lucky enough to hold international passports are leaving Lebanon, which is also putting more pressure on the governments resources as capital and business owners move out of Lebanon.

Lebanon’s economy has been dependent on tourism, and with the war the flow of tourism has stopped, which makes this state even more revenue poor than it has been since the banking crisis. But it is the refusal of the United States to pressure the Israelis on the scope of this war, that has led to widespread worry among the Lebanese where they can go next, where they live and whether they have the resources to eat. With agencies like the World Kitchen and other agencies providing free meals, there is a realisation that it is only providing a fraction of the resources the refugees need.

Biden has enabled this war and though Ayatollah Khamenei is demanding retribution, he has exposed the soft underbelly of the Iranian state. President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate who was looking to bring about another nuclear deal and an opening of the Iranian economy is fighting a revanchalist that pits Iran against Israel and the US. The Israelis have made Pezeshkian’s position very difficult since the assassination of Haniyeh, but he has continued to reach out to states in Europe and the Middle East.

There is a realisation that the arguments that have permeated through the Middle East are affecting the US and how it manages a crisis. The failure of Biden to enforce his red lines is also a failure of Middle East diplomacy in the White House. The US is giving Netanyahu a clear passage to manage US power in the region, because of Biden’s inability to manage this crisis. At the moment the hawks have the advantage, because Biden and Blinken have lost or are losing control of the arguments that are coursing through the Middle East. And it is those failures that have led to the US falling into the traps set by Netanyahu and the vagaries of Ayatollah Khamenei that is engulfing the region.