Current Affairs

NATO didn’t quite get there for Ukraine, but its attempts to Trump proof any agreements that Trump would make with Putin, could and would be undone by NATO’s affirmation of Ukraine as a partner. The US elections ran large over NATO’s summit in Washington and everyone was watching out for any gaffes that Biden would make, unfortunately there were two, one was to call the Ukrainian leader President Putin, and the second was to refer to his vice president as Trump which was enough to worry the visiting delegates and world press. But the meeting itself was not to reaffirm Biden’s presidency and America’s position in NATO, it was to celebrate an alliance that has kept Europe at peace for the past seventy five years.

Victor Orban, in a side hustle met with Trump after his meetings with Putin and President Xi Jinping. What they had to talk about has been kept confidential, but the unruly Orban who leads the EU for the next five months has made his position concerning Ukraine clear, and that is an end to the war. Orban aside, there is hegemony among the delegates agreeing that Ukraine membership is only a matter of time, but whether it will happen sooner than expected will probably depend on the next president.

EU ambassadors in Brussels convened a meeting to discuss Orbans visits to Russia and China, as well as condemning Orban for using the presidency and EU symbols during the visits, they also stated that he had harmed the unity of the 27 countries and acted contrary to the treaties. While there were no actions taken by the delegates there was a signal about stripping Hungary from the presidency, a diplomat argued that this was similar to giving Hungary the “yellow card” and that some member states were thinking about boycotting informal ministerial meetings.

Europe has taken a strong position and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. There are very few voices that are complaining about the funding of NATO and all have met the two percent funding of their armed forces, with some countries exceeding the funding pledge. There has also been a push to rearm and a encourage industry to provide the weaponry needed to meet military commitments among all the members as soon as possible.

The United Kingdom is in a bind, the army has been hollowed out and the country is finding it difficult to meet its commitment of two and half percent, because of budgetary limitations. To take some of the pressure off the Chancellery there is a defence review being led by the government, though the army is crying out for money and has warned that it could not fight a land battle. There is hope that within the next year the government will meets its obligations to the forces and finds the revenue to meet the challenges that an aggressive Russia poses.

Though Ukraine was disappointed not to be given a timetable when it could join NATO, the affirmation that it would be joining and new weapons and missile systems promised from the other members seemed to placate Zelensky. But the war is not going very well for Ukraine and though financially able to continue the war, the war of attrition is challenging for the Ukrainian military and people. Biden’s refusal to allow Ukraine to attack targets deeper in Russia is hampering Ukraine’s ability to manage the war, however the new weapons systems will hopefully negate the missiles coming from inside Russia and targeting soft targets in Ukraine’s cities, towns and villages.

Ukraine continues to haemorrhage wealth because of the war, and is due to pay out on a $23 billion bond this year, which has been held up since the war began. Due to shortfalls in the Ukrainian economy and the war, it is possible that Ukraine may default on the bonds unless an agreement is reached with its creditors. Ukraine is hoping for further  two year breathing space, but that is dependent on how much longer the war will continue. Furthermore Ukraine is hoping for a $15.6billion package from the IMF to help ease some of the pressures on the economy.

There weren’t many commitments from the delegates, especially concerning Ukraine’s ability to build up its armaments industry, which would enable Ukraine to build its military/industrial capacity in the future. But there was good news in the shape of long awaited for F16s, though Ukrainian pilots have been queued before they could be trained on the fighter systems. What difference these fighters will make is to be seen, but hopefully there will be a marked upswing in Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Furthermore, NATO has begun the process of integrating the Ukrainian military into their systems, an international coordination centre has been set in Wiesbaden, Germany, to identify and locate equipment, weapons and spare parts that Ukraine may need.

The bridge to Ukrainian membership of NATO, seems to be a step to far for NATO at the moment. Though the allies have said they would support Ukraine for the time being, there are serious worries what a Trump Presidency would do to the alliance that NATO has built up with Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg tried to get a budget for the Ukrainians of £100 billion per year, but most countries bulked at the idea.

In a Time magazine interview, Biden said that he was “not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine.” So the question is what is the long term goal of NATO, especially as there is a realisation that Ukraine will not be strong enough to liberate Russian-occupied territory with the budget, armaments and tactical shortcomings that NATO is providing as a budget. According to Eugine Rumer, writing in Carnegie, he argues that the objective of NATO is for Ukraine not to lose this war, but to “convince Putin that he will never force Ukraine into submission.” The logic behind NATO’s thinking is flawed as nothing seems to be stopping Putin from committing more war crimes, such as the children’s hospital that was bombed on the day of the NATO summit.

NATO has telegraphed its arguments about the war in Ukraine, and though they have provided Ukraine with the weaponry to continue fighting a defensive war, there seems to a be a massive hole in how Ukraine can continue the war with the few resources it has. Though Russia is losing a huge amount of personnel and hardware in the meat-grinder that is Ukraine, the attritional war continues. The determination and ruthlessness of Putin, does not seem to stop him committing crimes that would shock most international courts. If NATO have ruled out direct involvement in the war, they are in a tricky position where they either find themselves finding the situation unsustainable and at the same time, Russia has proven itself unpredictable and could escalate the situation by an attack that directly effects a NATO member. The other option is to negotiate with Putin, which NATO members apart from Orban have no stomach for and to directly open negotiations with a war criminal would in itself be challenging the foundations that most members of NATO stand on. So in the end it is an impasse, with neither NATO, Europe or the United States willing to make the first move. But the capitulation of Ukraine is not going to happen any time soon.