Current Affairs

It is strange that when a country invades part of your territory, you are not allowed to attack the supply line that is enabling the attacking power to invade your territory in the first place. Ukraine is in this position, a position of weakness because it cannot attack Russia’s supply lines with the Western weapons at its disposal. At some point Germany and the US will have to come off the fence that they are sitting on, and the fear of a third world war will have to be put to one side and admit that Ukraine is fighting a regressive war because of Biden and Shultz’s calculations.

European defence ministers are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday to try and overcome some of the obstacles that have been put in place by countries such as Hungary, who are holding up a US$7 billion tranche for Ukraine. Victor Orban seen as a Russian stooge in the European Union, continues to order his ministers to delay the aid coming into Ukraine. There have been calls to change the voting system to get around the obstacle that empowers the Hungarian government to veto support coming to Ukraine from Europe.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is on a two day tour of Europe, where he will inspect the long awaited F16s, and also drum up support in Spain, Portugal and Belgium. The Ukrainians are coming off a very poor news cycle that has included missile strikes on Kharkiv, and loss of territory to the Russians in the north east of Ukraine. Hanno Pevkur, the Estonian defence Minister argued that the “critical decisions [in Europe] are not made. The urgency [to make these decisions..] is very, very acute”.

The war is getting closer to Europe, there is a realisation that NATO techniques have led to Ukraine containing the Russian forces, but the Ukrainians are stretched and cannot indefinitely keep fighting a defensive war, because Russia has the supply lines that are keeping it in the battles raging across the Kharkiv region. Latvia, Estonia and Poland want to send some of their soldiers to bolster the supply lines of the Ukrainians, but US and Germany are against further NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine. The Baltic nations and Poland, unlike Germany and the US, do not see the war in Ukraine as an insignificant threat, but a critical threat that they need to fight before Russia expands the war onto their territory.

Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at NATO parliamentary summit in Sofia, Bulgaria, argues that NATO’s “main purpose [….] is not to fight a war. The main purpose of NATO is to prevent war [….]. We have an aggressive Russia, which is using force against neighbours of NATO.” He argued that to counter Russia was to increase the support that Ukraine receives, and that “99% of the support that Ukraine receives is from NATO countries.” Hanno Pevkur the Estonian defence minister believes that Europe must find the finance and ability for Europe to protect itself.

Ukrainian President Zelensky argued that the 6 months it took Congress to put in place the aid package has led to delays which have proven critical. Jens Stoltenberg in Sofia said that “These delays in military support has had consequences on the ground. The fact that they (Ukrainian military) don’t get ammunition, they don’t get air defence, they don’t get the supplies we have promised, has made it very hard for the Ukrainians to defend [themselves].”

With the delays of military equipment, the Ukrainians have been fighting a delaying action that has seen significant casualties, which could have been avoided. America and Germany’s determination to not escalate the conflict further, has led to a loss of territory for Ukraine, but it is the bigger picture that has been ignored according to Jens Stoltenberg. China has greatly increased its dependence on Russian oil and in return is sending soft weapons to the Russians. North Korea and Iran have increased their supplies to the front lines and the likelihood is that Ukraine will continue to haemorrhage its brightest and best in this war.

The argument in Europe is whether the 2% increase in defence among NATO members is enough. Hanno Pevkur argues that it is not enough, Estonia he points outs has increased it defence spending along with Poland and Greece, to 3.5%. He thinks NATO needs to increase their spending to 2.5% and hopes that this will be ratified in Washington during the NATO summit. It is a question of whether NATO can catch up to the spending of Russia, which is currently at 6% of GDP, though there are signs that Russia is going to review its spending on the war in Ukraine.

The West is talking about conscription again. The British elections have brought about a discussion by the Conservatives of bringing about conscription for 18-19 year old’. They argue that the world is becoming more dangerous and that £4.5 billion will lead to the nation being prepared for dangerous geopolitical events. At best the electorate have been luke warm to the idea and the military have argued that it requires more funding not only to take conscripts, but also keep their military architecture up to date.

But with threats in Asia, Eurasia and the Middle East, there is a realisation that NATO is thin on the ground. Also, it is election year in the United States and the two candidates differ significantly on the value of NATO. Trump argued at a rally in February, that “he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments and would encourage the aggressors to “do what the hell they want”. The White House called the speech “appalling and unhinged.” Jens Stoltenberg said any suggestion that “allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security”.

There are other problems such as TNT and other explosives necessary for the production of shells to go to the front in Ukraine. Europe has been on a peace setting for the past twenty years and ramping up production is difficult, because so many of the factories that once produced high explosives have been mothballed or privatised. According to the Economist the Europeans will take 7 years before full production can take place, and to get around the problems of production they have started to buy the constituents that make up an explosive from countries as far away as Japan and India.

Each element designed to make Ukraine’s war with Russia more manageable is facing difficulties, whether it is political, budgetary or even the constituents that make up a nations ability to defend itself. Europe has been at peace so long that it is fighting to catch up and though Ukraine is starting its third year of war, Europe is still behind on its commitments to NATO and Ukraine. Countries such as the United States are going into a critical phase on whether it will continue to support the West in Ukraine, Eurasia or the Middle East. The United States have other critical arguments in the world today, and though it is not yet isolationist in its foreign affairs, its concentration on other spheres, especially China are more about US geopolitical power in the future.

It is for Europe to take the lead in Ukraine, but it is also NATO that calls the shots and whether there is an incumbent in the White House who is isolationist, then it is a question of Europe rearming and re-adressing its position as a power, rather than just a member of an alliance that may have significant problems if the US takes a position of not reaffirming its commitments to NATO and Europe. The fear of a creeping war without the most powerful army involved, sends a shiver down the spine of Europeans who have been witnesses, aggressors and defenders of democracy for the past seventy years, but if Europe wants to remember what it was like to be isolated, they only need to look back on two world wars over the twentieth century.