Current Affairs

Myanmar is complicated, it is really a number of states in a state. It is also a geopolitical hotspot where the big game is played for the wealth and strategic alliances that can be made by small and large nations. Groups are fighting a war to return the country to civilian rule, but it is also about control of the mineral wealth and opium that keeps corruption as one of the main avenues that fuel the military’s hold on power, and the rebel armies ability to fight the war. The military is close to Russia, which make it one of the few allies that the Russian state has, but the difference this time is that the biggest player in the internal machinations of the state is China. But it is more complicated than this, the thriving argument of democracy that doubled GDP and set the economy on a path to success was undone by a coup in 2021, by the military junta led by Min Aung Hlang.

Since the coup in February 2021, the prolonged state of emergency, has compounded the human rights and humanitarian crisis. Hundreds and thousands took to the streets in protest at the military rule, while thousands of civilians joined the People’s Defence Force (PDF) to fight the Tatmadaw (Military). The military have detained thousands accused of resisting the junta, and have targeted civilians with bombardments, airstrikes and a scorched earth policy to displace the rebels and alienate them from the general population. Since the coup, the UN says that three million have been displaced and thirty million do not have enough food

ASEAN has argued for a “Five Point Consensus”, which called for a cessation of the conflict in 2021, but regional pressure has been stepped up, especially by China that has placed pressure on the military junta through operation 1027, which gave support to rebels. The border region that China was so focussed on, gave the rebel militias an opportunity to gain support from China, in the hope that the town of Laukkai, a gambling hub that has turned into a regional black spot for scam centres, would fall to a rebel alliance.

Myanmar Now, reported on 27 Feb 2023, that Chinese special envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun met with several ethic rebel groups in Shan State. The officials from the Wa State Army, National Democratic Alliance Army. Shan State Progress Party, Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) attended meetings with the special envoy, with the outcome being gains made by the rebels against the military government. The Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin argues that now is a good time to begin negotiations with the military junta as it is “losing strength”.

According to Joshua Kurlantzick the military junta have had setbacks not just in Laukkai, but also Arkan State and Myawaddy, which is a vital town for the military on the Thai border. Conscription has been stepped up by the military, and some of their supporters have argued for a change in leadership, because of the losses of territory. Joshua Kulantzick also argues that the military are close to collapse, but maybe it is a bit early to speculate that the military will collapse without negotiations taking place first, as the Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has suggested.

In 2007, when the Saffron revolution took place, Monks placed pressure on the military for civilian rule and played a part in Myanmar returning to civilian rule after fifty four years of military government. But today Monks still play a part in how the military are seen and act internally within the avenues of power. Sitagu Sayadaw, a monk who took part in the Saffron Revolution, underpinned the military takeover of the Government by giving his blessing to the coup. Matthew Walton of the University of Toronto argued that Sitagu Sayadaw, was instrumental in the changes that took place between 2008 and 2015 when civilian rule returned to the state. Melyn McKay, in an article in the diplomat believes that that “ democracy would better enable the Buddhist polity to elect leaders able and willing to ensure the health and well-being of the imagined Buddhist state.”

Amara Thiha argues that ultra-nationalist monks believe they are protectors of King Pyu Saw Htee’s legacy, securing traditional legitimacy for the military regime and the “influence of ultra-nationalist monks will impact the political landscape in post coup Myanmar.” But the nationalist monks believe the military junta are weak and want Soe Win to take over the army and Min Aung Hlang to move into a civilian role. Myanmars religious authority the State Sangha has said very little about the military government and one senior monk in the Sangha, Situ Sayadaw has openly supported the military. The monks have also formed militias named Pyuswhti, after a legendary Burmese King and have been accused of forcibly recruiting locals, and of multiple atrocities against civilians.

Khin Ohmar founder of Progressive Group believes that the military is close to collapse and that the new democratic forces will form a government. There are voices that argue that the military are so weak that they are forced to bomb rather than fight the resistance forces, and though the resistance does not have the air power to challenge the military, they have successfully bombed military airbases with drones.

There are three pillars of military power, territory, wealth and popularity. Khin Ohmar argues that the military have lost two of these three pillars, and that their power is waning with targeted sanctions and loss of trade routes proving difficult for the military junta, and symbolically the military are facing a loss however much they terrorise the civilian population. Kim Johffe speaking on Al Jazeera believes this is a revolution that is challenging the military government and is a bottoms up revolution that started at the very beginning of the military coup, and though the rebels have come from different ethnic groups and have different arguments, the uniting argument is that they all want a federal state, with improved human rights and better economic conditions in the future.

If the Thai Prime Minister is right and it is a good time to begin negotiations, China may try to bring the rebel armies to negotiations, though they have the advantage in the war in Myanmar.  It is imperative for the state that the different indigenous armies have a stake in the new state, otherwise the jigsaw that is Myanmar will continue to be fragmented. Whether the military believe they can hold out with the airpower and depleted military forces that they command is another question, but the impetus is with the rebels, especially in Arkan where they have had major success against the military. But the battle for Myanmar is not won yet, the major states involved(China, Russia, India and Thailand) will have to come to some sort of compromise and though the UN security council is trying to vote through a resolution that starts negotiations, the Russians are vetoing the ability of the UN to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. But if the military are forced to negotiate, the conflict will come to an end and a federal state will be put in place with a democratically elected government.