Current Affairs

Constants are at the top of the list in Warsaw and Paris; the Baltic’ nations press ever harder for Ukraine to join NATO, but Germany and the US have made certain that Ukraine will not be joining NATO any time soon. The constant in this equation is Putin, who has been re-elected with an eighty three percent approval rating. Though the war is not very popular amongst Russian’s, his position is seen as that of a crisis manager, however much he has contributed to the crisis. The defining argument is that Russia has mobilised and moved a million fighters to the front without much consideration for an electorate who do not really want this war.

Mark Rutte, widely tipped to become the next leader of NATO has shown his hand and argues that the time is not right for Ukraine’s ascension into the pact. It is a question that is most concerning the West and the political machinations of the governments that make up NATO, is confusing the arguments for Ukrainians. France, Poland and the Baltic nations see the argument as something that is reminiscent of the war in Georgia, where Russia invaded and upended the Georgians aspirations for closer ties with the West and especially NATO. Russia also carved out provinces in Georgia that are free of the Georgian state and these patchwork of states are instrumental in the push to get Ukraine membership of NATO at the earliest possible time.

Similar to Georgia, Ukraine’s membership of the EU is going to take years, because of all the checks and balances necessary for membership of the EU. In this sense, the lack of Western support for Ukraine’s ascension into NATO and the European Union will challenge how the war in Ukraine will be waged and politicians such as Mark Rutte have come to the conclusion that Ukrainian membership cannot be attained until the war has ended.

Russia is economically in a good place, it is raising finance for the war and the population believe that economically they have not lived so well; the respondents to a Levada poll believe that the economy has evened out the economic difference between rich and poor. The poll has revealed that seventy five percent of the electorate in Russia believe the economy has never been so good and their lives have not been better. There is an enormous difference to a poll taken in 2022, which argued that Russian society was economically uneven and corruption was widespread. The respondents asked if they believed the government is managing the economy well in the 2023 poll, seventy percent of respondents believed the economy has improved and the government has managed to improve the living standards of most Russians.

After the theatre attack, there is widespread belief that Putin will increase the FSB budget and close down the space for protests. The consensus argues that the FSB will become more intrusive in peoples lives and there will be very little tolerance for challenges to the state and state apparatus. There are also questions about whether the press and media will be even more controlled throughout the term of Putin’s presidency. It is already evident that state structures are interfering with news and current affairs programmes, which in the future will be more controlled by the state. There is also concern that there will be very little room for independent voices in the media, other than everyday subjects that concern the viewers. This type of censorship was seen when Boris Nadezhdin was forced to quit the presidential race, because of his stance on the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine is in a bind because it is being pressed into a corner by NATO members who cannot support Ukraine’s ascension. There are concerns that Ukraine would be forced into a position of being a test bed for how membership will progress in the future, and whether Ukraine will be granted membership of NATO before the end of the war. Ideas being argued include whether the EU model for Ukrainian membership would be appropriate for Ukraine, meaning Ukraine will have to prove its viability for membership. The idea is that Ukraine will begin ascension into NATO at the soonest possible time, but it will be based on the EU model, standardisation of Ukraine’s military is at the forefront of most members argument for Ukraine to become a member of NATO. But in Vilnius last year, NATO members agreed that Ukraine had “moved beyond the need for the process, […] and that Ukraine’s future is in NATO.”

One of the concerns of NATO is corruption. Though Ukraine has improved its standing in the anti-corruption index last year, Ukraine has set up anti corruption units, which has been a difficult process for the government where there has been a demand for all members of parliament to declare their wealth. NATO is arguing that anti-corruption is a core argument in the process in Ukraine gaining membership of the alliance. This is a very difficult hoop for Ukraine to jump through, especially as it ranks 104^th among 180 countries that participate in the anti corruption Index.

Corruption is rampant in the Russian military, salaries have improved over the last year but there is widespread corruption in the procurement of food and military necessities. Russia ranked 137^th out of 180 in the corruption index, according to VOA. Putin has admitted that he is part of the argument of corruption in state sectors and he cannot do anything as it is widespread among educators. police, bureaucrats and other parts of the public sector. The military has improved their procurement process, but at the start of the war military veterans asked the public to provide the soldiers with tourniquets, bulletproof jackets, night vision devises and sleeping bags, which the military had failed to provide the soldiers. Though the Russian forces are better provided for now, there is still an element of corruption and Russian soldiers still face shortages of the most basic equipment on the frontline

Though NATO with the best intention has argued that Ukraine cannot join NATO until the fighting has come to an end, the choice for Ukraine is a prolonged war that has no ending because of NATO members dithering. France, Poland and the Baltic see the war as a stalemate that needs to be underpinned by membership, which stops Russia from continuing the war indefinitely. The Vilnius conference argued that the sooner Ukraine gained membership of NATO, then Russia would negotiate an end to the war. The corruption that has been part of Ukrainian life for so long is ending, and though Ukrainians are fighting a prolonged war, there is a belief that if Ukraine is given the technology to hold the Russian’s, they will be the next modern European state to be a full member of NATO, rather than a proxy of Russia that Putin has fought so hard to make happen.