Current Affairs

Nothing will change much in Europe after the election of Ursula Von de Leyen as the leader of the European Union, but there will be a larger Conservative majority in the EPP. The socialists are up in arms, especially in Spain, where the government have found themselves being out manoeuvred by a Europe that has moved towards the right. Leo Varadaker of Ireland has already congratulated Von der Leyen on her election for the next five years, but what does this mean for a Europe looking more hawkish on Green issues and balancing the budget.

Von der Leyen, a naturally Conservative voice has surprised many with her attempts to push a green agenda. The conservatives similar to America have railed against these attempts and challenged the green movement across Europe. But in Germany, the Liberal Green movement are in government and have taken a number of initiatives that challenge the base support of parties such as the Christian Democrats.

As climate change takes the forum in European countries, green parties have increased their representation, but the Conservatives who dominate the political canon have argued that climate change is expensive, and moved the movement away from its core supporters – to arguments that the greens are proposing a radical difference to the environment without taking into account costs. Green parties and movements in Europe have become a critical element in Europe’s movement away from the carbon argument and towards a faster adoption of some of the core principles of the movement. They want a faster adoption of renewable energy and plans to change transport, agriculture and building legislation.

The backlash against the green movement has begun and countries such as Britain have criminalised demonstrators who have taken part in the green protests. There have already been backlashes against governments attempting to push the green agenda and countries such as France have rolled back taxes on fuel, especially after the Gillet Jeune movement. So the movement towards green politics has been slowed in Europe for the time being, but with an election for seats in Europe coming, there is consensus that right leaning members will slow the movement more critically. Though in France the government has continued to focus on the movement and have concentrated on new investment in renewable energy, and though there has been a relaxation of European state aid for green subsidies, France has changed the focus towards job creation through an employment programme rather than a climate agenda.

Taking their cue from France, Britain’s Labour government are expected to concentrate on the industrial green movement and believe this avenue of policy will create more jobs in the industrial sector. They believe that the green movement will modernise industry and hope that it will lead to a more prosperous and modernised economy that moves quickly away from the industrial argument determined by fossil fuels. Though the conservatives in the United Kingdom have been boxed in by those who support the fossil fuel economy and the green movement, they have been taking into consideration some of the arguments determined by the green movement, but they have also licensed concessions in the North Sea, which challenges the green movements arguments.

There is little appetite for the green agenda in Northern Europe, though there has been an up-tick in places like Poland buying heat pumps, but overall it is not a vote winner. The costs have been underpinned by a green subsidy, but this may change as the left liberal argument is taken to the polls and a right centralist argument is in the ascendency. Countries in the south, such as Spain, which has suffered an acute water crisis over the past number of years, is pushing hard the argument of climate change and that decarbonisation targets are necessary, but it has generally been a difficult point to make to the electorate. Whereas Italy has totally downplayed the argument of climate change and have not put any projects towards a green agenda as a priority. Overall climate is correlated with education, per captia income and age, with more younger voters engaged in these issues, making it difficult for inroads to be made in southern and eastern Europe, who have a poorer understanding of green issues than their more prosperous neighbours.

According to Politico, eastern Europe has very few campaigners, but governments are taking advantage of green funds coming from the EU. However there is very little impetus for politicians to promote green agendas and the phasing out of coal power is very far from the concerns of these nations who do not view it as a major issue, and argue that to transform their economy to a more green revolution would prove costly and damage the economy. Nordic countries are mainly determined by a rural economy that supports the green movement, so they are a less powerful lobby group. They are also determined by the efforts of the rural economy to manage subsidies that are based on green arguments, but they also have the green agenda determined by the farmers choices and initiatives, which does not make that much sense, when it comes to the main concerns of the rural elite who drive the green agenda for their own goals.

The issue of green subsidies has been held hostage by the war in Ukraine, but the movement has also been undermined by the movement towards a right of centre agenda that argues that the movement towards a green agenda is proving to expensive. Other than France, which has linked employment to the Green agenda, there is very little political will to move the argument of climate warming to the top of the political canon. Countries such as Spain have been arguing that a green agenda will alleviate some of the effects of climate, but there seems to be very little stomach for the movement away from dependence on fossil fuels. But put more succinctly, Von der Leyen who promoted a green nature park, lost support from the centre right that dominates Europe today and had to give up on promoting the park and a European green agenda in its present form.