Current Affairs

It is two years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the meat-grinder that is the war – is not slowing down. Advika, is the latest town to fall to Russia. But Ukraine with a shortage of ammunition held back by the US Congress’, due to their inability to differentiate right from wrong; Congress are now electioneering for the Presidential race later this year. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and the irrepressible who first stood in the Maidan protest are now fighting in a war that Putin started.

Ukraine has been through it all before, the start of the war nearly saw the collapse of Kiev, but the Ukrainians fought the Russians to a standstill, then to a withdrawal, only to find Russian soldiers had murdered, slaughtered, tortured, raped and mutilated civilians in Bucha by a so called modern army. The war itself continues and Ukrainians are finding it difficult to continue fighting because of a shortage of ammunition. At some point there will be a realisation that this war is dependent on receiving the weapons that Ukraine needs to continue fighting this war. Ukraine does not have the manpower to continue fighting without aid, and the stubbornness of Congress to hold back the weapons, shells and hardware that the Ukrainians need will come back and bite Congress in the worst possible way.

It is said that Trump is useful to the Kremlin, and that the Kremlin has a dossier on him that holds him back from supporting the interests of the West. It includes his sexual preferences and golden showers, whatever that means. Whether this is true or not, the pain that Trump has caused the Ukrainians is absolutely dreadful. Congress in doing Trump’s dirty work are failing to understand that between Putin and Xi, the West is in a similar position than it was in 1989. The hard work done by Reagan to bring down the Iron Curtain is just a moment of history, and the work that America did in bringing down the wall is being undone by Congressional leaders who have decided to electioneer, rather than concentrate on a war that is vital to NATO and the West. Europe is in trouble, more than it was in 1989, the economies are retrenching and redirecting their energy towards the Green argument, and though this takes energy and investment, it is being sidelined by those with entrenched viewpoints that challenges the hegemony of the US and Europe.    

The war has support among the majority in Europe, but there are some that cannot live without Russian oil. This includes Victor Orban of Hungary, a growling bear of discontent, who at every opportunity has hijacked the limelight to demonstrate his position on the war, Europe and NATO. Of course Hungary is a member of the EU, NATO and other alliances that are affiliated with progressive arguments, but the fact that at every opportunity he grumbles, moans and challenges the arguments of these organizations, which leads to his nations veto’s at every opportunity, demonstrates that he has very little grasp of what it is to be part of a pact that has saved his nation numerous times both militarily and financially.

Why does Europe need to get ready for Trump 2.0 as the US media puts it. America is in a greater danger than Europe, it is moving slowly towards being a green economy, but it is slow to progress on regional conflicts that affect the make up of their alliances, especially in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The United States has failed to quantify the outcome of the war between Israel and Hamas; and the realisation that economies such as Saudi Arabia could turn to China to progress with its development away from the oil market, which may mean a costlier outcome than can be imagined. Everything that the Saudi’s are asking for can be brought from China, so the realism that confronts the United States is not being met by those that control the narrative of the mainstream. The United States under Trump will move towards an isolationist argument, which spells an end to America as a superpower and becoming a peripheral power that has very little interest in world affairs, other than those that affects the United States. These are dangers that an isolationist state cannot afford, which means that the United States will become a peripheral power. This is the position that Britain found itself in 1979. It is the realisation that you are no longer a world power or powerful enough to manage financial streams, debt and a currency, which was once a world commodity and dooms the US to the same growing pains that Britain went through to modernise its economy and financial system.

But it is in Ukraine that the importance of America lies and that is a question of whether the West and East re-enter a cold war. Russia, under Putin is fighting a revanchelist war, not just historically but also in the near history. Putin has never got over the failure of the Soviet Union, he continues to believe that Russia is a world power but the reality is that without countries such as India and China, Putin would not have an economy. Russia’s economy is beginning to falter on the costs of the war in Ukraine, as the war eats into the national budget. Russia’s modernisation of its armament industry, means that Putin can continue this war whether or not Russia is rolled back by the Ukrainian army. Russia is already pariah state and is slowly sinking into a dictatorship without the avenues of discussion that could manage an outcome that would enable Ukraine and Russia to find an outcome that ends the war.

After the assassination of Navalny, Putin is trying to direct the way that Russia will be in the future. Putin’s argument for revanchalism is really a cover to re-build a Soviet space that includes economies that have fought hard for their freedom – Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland. Other economies will follow suit, especially in Hungary, where Orban already has the air of an authoritarian leader. The movement away from Europe towards isolationism is a failure of America to understand its markets and also where the real arguments lie.

European industry is growing slower than America, especially with Germany and the United Kingdom entering recession, but the German and UK economies are being strengthened by the new industries that are coming on stream and will power Europe past America in the coming decade. Germany is renegotiating its industrial output towards the green argument, which takes time. But with new industrial arguments coming on line especially microchip processing and the industrialisation of Germanies armaments industry, Germany should grow in the last quarter of 2024 or early 2025.

But it is the war in Ukraine that will most affect the economies of Europe. The war will ebb and flow as the weapons necessary become more effective. Ukraine will become stronger militarily and industrially as the energy necessary to fight the war is complemented with weapons systems that are manufactured inside Ukraine. European defence industries have said they will invest in Ukraine and this should solve a number of problems that the Ukrainians are facing in the frontlines with procurement and availability. But the war itself is dependent on Europe rather than the US, which is very much in election season. If Trump does get in, then there will be questions whether the US will continue to be a world leader in the movement from the fossil economy and whether Trump will undo the progress that Biden has made in developing an economy that has been surprisingly resilient.

But it is the war that Ukraine is fighting that is now two years old that is most concerning. If Ukraine can hold its lines until the support and investment in the economy comes in, then there will be a very different outcome than what is happening in Ukraine today. Two years of war have cost the Ukrainians thirty thousand casualties, every family has someone fighting and though Ukraine has done remarkably well to stave off the Russians, they are at a standstill, as are the Russians, who have lost more personnel, more capabilities and more equipment. This war will grind on for the time being, but ultimately it is the decisions within Europe and the United States that will decide an outcome and an end to this conflict, if Ukraine receives the support that is so necessary for it to continue fighting effectively.