Current Affairs

The rise of intelligence agencies activities is not much of a surprise, but the movement into the realm of technology is a spate that worries those who remember Edward Snowdon and Julian Assange’s warnings of mission creep. That William Burns, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency is writing in this weeks Foreign Affairs, tells you that the intelligence community is changing into something more equivalent to a technical agency- than one with the idealised portrait of human interaction.

Spying is changing, it is about control of the next generation of technology and if you control that technology you are able to harvest information, (however banal it is), which means that you are able to converse as an equal in any environment. The manipulation and control of the individual is at the foremost of this argument, and with the proliferation of cameras that can identify an individual anywhere, it means that the duality of original spy craft is set with diminishing returns because of recognition cameras.

William Burn’s argues that the new arguments can be found in China and Russia, and with a weary eye the US is reviewing its policies in the Middle East. But the arguments that are ripping through the fabric of this assertion – is how fires right across the world can be controlled. Iran is in a state of a counter revolution, where those who see the figure of Ayatollah Khamenei getting weaker and his brand of Conservative authoritarianism is being re-branded by those jockeying to be the next leader. This is forcing through arguments that have appeared only once, and that was when the Strait of Hormuz was threatened by the IRGC, (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp).

Power plays by the IRGC are not new, but what is new is the frequency of the attacks that have taken place. Joe Biden, is seen as not acting in the same way as other Presidents, and the fear of US retaliation is being sidelined by arguments of mission creep, especially in the Red Sea and Syria. Whether, the actions taken by the Houthi’s are actually in support of Hamas in Gaza, is also a question that needs to be asked. But the danger that the IRGC poses, is also a question of why Iran feels that it can instruct its allies in the Middle East to escalate its arguments.

Of course Israel’s role in Gaza is causing concern for the Arab world, but the only reactionary elements are those allied to Iran. Hezbollah are being a nuisance on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, but that is all it is – a nuisance. Whereas the threat coming from Yemen threatens world shipping going through the Suez canal. But ultimately, it is a war that has been seen before on the Straits of Hormuz, which as a choke point is almost identical to the course taken by shipping entering the Red Sea and going to the Suez canal.

The attack on US forces in northern Jordan is an escalation that challenges the veracity of the intelligence community. Whether a mistake or not by the IRGC in Syria, it challenges the US position in the Middle East. It is a very serious argument that has been put forward by an element of the IRGC, and challenges the American political institutions on how they retaliate. It is probably one of the most serious attacks that can be attributable to an outside force directly linked to the IRGC, and that itself escalates the arguments within the political make up of the Iranian state, and questions that should have been asked before the attack – weren’t- due to the nature of the power politics at play in Iran. Furthermore, the stability of the Iranian regime is questionable, especially as the Ayatollahs will be aware that there will be retaliation, and whether that retaliation takes place in Syria or Iran, will be dependent on how Biden will view the seriousness of the attack on US forces.

Russia and China are watching the failure of the US to react strongly, not only in Iran but also across the Middle East. The Russian’s and Chinese view how the US reacts to the rocket attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the drone attack on US forces in Jordan and the war in Ukraine, as whether Biden is strong enough to take the appropriate action necessary to underpin the US’ international arguments.     

William Burns, argues that China is now on a near equal footing both militarily and economically with the US. He argues that attention must be paid to China, especially as Russia has become a vassal of China, as it has become a one dimensional economy dependent on oil exports. But this arguments itself is down to the determination of Xi in repressing the growth of elements of the Chinese economy that would guarantee more freedom of expression. He has shut down avenues of open dialogue and enforced subservient base that is answerable to the CCP. (Chinese Communist Party) and the state itself, but openly encouraged the alliance between Russia and China.

Burns argues that both Putin and Xi see the US economy and military power as waning. He argues that the intelligence agencies will play a larger role in the future and believes that technology and the enhancement of the elements that make up espionage are thriving, and the US is doing well in China and Russia. But the question is whether the actions that take place elsewhere hold as much importance to the CIA as they once did?      

Ukraine is a contentious argument in the US Congress and the expansion of NATO throughout Europe is a reaction to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. That the United States is haemorrhaging support among the Europeans who are disappointed at Congress’ blocking of aid to Ukraine, is also signalling the Russian’s and Chinese that US is losing its ability to transform a crisis point to its advantage. Further escalations have led to questions being asked about whether America is in a strong enough position to continue its diplomacy from a position of military power. China is interested in how the United States supports Ukraine as this signifies whether the US could stomach a conflict in Asia, especially Taiwan.

American power is being questioned more than it has ever been. The conflict in the Middle East is almost as important as US support to Ukraine. That Congress is holding up support for the Ukrainians makes US projection of power difficult and in many ways the bombing of the base in northern Jordan is a reflection of nations testing US flexibility and military abilities to be active on a number of fronts at the same time. The US’ inability to arm Ukraine is a failure of US foreign policy and will in the future undermine NATO. The importance of Ukraine being armed is also a realisation that US power on the world stage is being upended by a select few who are isolationist in their outlook and are undoing the prestige and power of the United States intelligence community as well as the outlook of those reliant on US military prestige. If America is to retain its primacy on the international stage, then America needs to restore its position as Ukraine’s friend and take action that affirms its position as a leading power in the Middle East and ensures that its intelligence and the intelligence community in the West are robust and not subject to the vacillation and handwringing of a few who view the world with suspicion.