Current Affairs

Welcome to a new year. There are so many important elections to look forward to this year, but this is the year of critical argument where nations are dependent on the outcome of two very important elections that will determine how the world is seen and moves forward.

The first election is a given, it is the Russian elections where Vladamir Putin stands again on a platform of the family and family values, while still sending the children into the meat grinder of the war in Ukraine. What will happen is dependent on your perspective of the world, but the obvious argument is why won’t Russia give the Ukrainians their independence. The Russians want to neutralise the Ukrainians, take away their dreams of European identity and membership of the Union. But the argument is so advanced that Russia itself is fighting an argument that has already been concluded with Ukraine’s move to a closer relationship with Europe and integration. There are other arguments that have been initiated by the Russians, but the reality is that each argument has been countered by Ukraine’s future membership not just to the European Union but also NATO.

Russia believes they are winning the war, especially when Congress blocks the necessary aid that Ukraine needs. It is not just a case of flight of capital from the United States to Ukraine, because the money will be spent in the United States where the production of the weapons systems will be built. But it is also a question of survival for the Ukrainians who are dependent on the weapons being manufactured in the United States.

Congress’ view is dependent on Trump supporters who view the world as split between the West and East, where America leads a singular argument that encompasses European political and allied argument that is critically opposed to the Eastern nations and their allies . The Trump supporters like the idea of three opposing powers, which are the United States, Russia and China and believe that these opposing powers will manage there own spheres of influence and act as competition to the industrial block that is Western Europe and the United States. They argue that the Chinese economy has bubbled and reached peak output, with other arguments such as the property market turning into a nightmare for the Chinese state, but China is also a dominant power, which influences the world economy and if China moves into recession, the other Asian countries, Europe and to degree the United States will find it difficult to escape recession. Russia itself has been realised as a power that is weak both economically and militarily and the argument that has been put through by the Trump loyalists is poorly thought out and negates the arguments of NATO, Europe and Asia. It does not stand up to scrutiny especially as the world economy is so dependent on a reprochment between the Asian and Western markets, which are reliant on materials that are both rare and are necessary for the future development of world economies.

Russia will continue to haemorrhage its youth in the meat grinder of Ukraine, as Putin will continue to control the Russian narrative. He will also argue for larger families, more organised movements that encompass the welfare of children into youth movements that are inspired by nationalistic rhetoric and are determined by an ideal of what arguments and political identity is acceptable. The liberalism of the state will continue to be eroded as the conservative factions continue to propagate their arguments not just within the media, but also throughout the electoral process. Russia will continue to suffer from inflation throughout the state as oil prices stabilize on world markets, making it easier for the non-opec countries to export their oil and other products to the industrialised north as Russia and other sanctioned countries move their interests away from Western Europe towards China.

Questions will continue about the whereabouts of those detained for political argument. Navalny’s isolation in the north of Russia in a work camp will continue to horrify his supporters, but the up-coming elections will significantly impact those who are in prison on spurious arguments that delineate the difference between the criminal and the political prisoner. Liberal political arguments will continue to be challenged by the state and the hard-line conservatives will gain a larger following among the political elite as Putin empowers the security services more directly. There is an argument that the security forces will gain further influence, not just internally but also politically, as this is seen as probably one of the last elections that Putin will stand in.

Whether America wakes up to the importance of providing military aid to the Ukrainians is a question of whether Biden can once again gain the confidence of Congress. The question of Israel is very much central to how Biden views the world, but opinions are turning on Biden, because he has not argued or placed pressure on an Israeli government that is hell bent on the total destruction of Gaza. There have been so many inconsistencies in the leadership of Biden, that Russia has gained more than a toe hold in the Middle East. Biden’s opinion ratings are poor and there seems to be widespread dissatisfaction with his presidency and it is hard to see him winning re-election. But his unpopularity is also a signature to the poor arguments that are coming from the Trump loyalists whose view of the world is distinguished by an argument of isolationism that will empower more radical arguments both at home and abroad.

Trump locked in legal arguments that range from holding secret documents illegally to over valuing his business empire, is the front runner for the leadership campaign in his party. His rhetoric is shaky, but that does not seem to bother his supporters. But Europe’s view of Trump, his legacy as President and his arguments, are viewed with suspicion. His arguments against NATO have dumbfounded the most ardent critics and his belief that he could solve the war in Ukraine very quickly could divide European hegemony from the conservatives, who to a degree are gaining ground in Europe. But Trump is a force, what he does next will continue to leave those who have a world view with a gaping chasms where once there had been solidarity, which would have to be met by a more unified argument in Europe, than it will if Biden wins the presidential race. If the election is to be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, there are questions that will distinguish how polar opposite their positions are, but there will be a unifying agreement on the economy rather than foreign affairs.

The question of China will be an eagerly contested argument, especially as Biden has eased up on the sanctions that Trump imposed during his presidency, but overall, unless there is a change in Congress the questions that most affects the United States, will be whether the country can continue to dominate the political canon as a world power. Trump’s economic arguments do not differ that much from Biden’s, which is where Biden will probably find his spur to win a debate and maybe seriously challenge Trump at the polls on arguments such as the environment, global warming and the future of America’s energy. But there are other arguments coming to the fore, and President Xi’s realisation that China is facing economic pressures, places pressure on Taiwan, which is in the middle of an election. More incursions by China into Taiwan’s territorial waters and also friction in the South China sea are causing concern for nations bordering China, therefore foreign policy has to be proactive rather than reactive. But these are all concerns for the nations that will be watching the US election very closely.

Russia itself is changing into a proto-nationalist argument that instils a hard edge to the conservative view point of the states momentum. Ideally the argument could be opened up if Russia was to have a proper election, but the outcome is very much known. The likelihood of anybody contesting the elections in Russia with a significant outlook that could challenge Putin is highly unlikely. But it is in the United States that is so divided that the elections will have the most significant impact on the world and how it stands in the future, and there are questions whether the rhetoric coming from Congress itself is a precursor to the electioneering that will take place. These are questions for the rest of the world because of the divisive nature of American elections, but whether Biden or Trump will come to the fore, there are questions that need to be challenged. The most important question for the world is where NATO will stand and whether the conflict in Ukraine will continue in its present form rather than one with regressive tactics because of the stubborn nature of Congress or a Trump presidency.