The argument of discrimination and difference has come to the fore in Israel and Palestine over the past week. The anger is palpable in Israel as is the sorrow that surrounds those who have lost loved ones. But the situation is that this war will escalate, as both sides continue to fight. The moral ambivalence to the plight of innocent Palestinians who have been bombed, lost their homes and forced to evacuate, has only one equivelance and that is the ruthlessness of Hamas who committed war crimes in Israel.
The German Vice Chancellor Martin Halbeck, in a speech he spoke beautifully about a time when he visited Israel, and on a visit to the Knesset he was transfixed by a painting. The painting was of Baba Yar, the murder of innocent Jews in Ukraine. The image was a catalyst to his speech, a question of guilt by Germany but also a realisation that what Hamas had done was reminiscent of the awfulness of the Holocaust. There are those that speak of the murders as a continuation of the Pogroms, but the disproportionate retaliation against the Palestinians is starting to wear thin, especially as it was Hamas that carried out the attack on Israel.
There have been demonstrations around the world supporting both sides, but there have also been questions as to who is to blame for the war. Israel had a lassez faire argument that was neutralised by the terrorist attacks that horrified not just Israel but also the world. On the morning of 13th October, the IDF issued a warning to the 1.2 million Palestinians of northern Gaza that they must leave within 24 hours. The goal is to neutralise Hamas as an organization in retaliation for the 7th October incursion into Israel and the brutal attack on civilians and the murder of women, children, the elderly and the taking of 150 hostages.
Throughout Europe and the United States there are political voices that have upheld the argument that Israel has the right to defend itself. An image that has not been lost on the Arab world, that has kept a finger to its lips and contributed very little to the conversation that is screened across the world. Arab leaders are mostly concerned about one thing and that is to keep the status quo politically, as they are mostly interested in keeping power at any cost, which means it is highly unlikely that they will run to the aid of Palestinians and especially Hamas.
But there are other voices across the Arab world that could or would come out in support of Hamas and that is likely to be Hezbollah. So far there have been infrequent attacks across Israel’s northern border, but once the offensive starts, there is an expectation that Hezbollah will launch more deadly attacks. Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah has sworn that Hezbollah will be proactive and the voices in Iran that cheered the attack, have escalated their support of Hamas, not only in words, but through proxies who have fired rockets from Yemen towards Israel.
With an incursion into Gaza, Israel is facing a three pronged escalation of the conflict. Hezbollah attacked Chalk Farm an enclave in Northern Israel that holds intelligence equipment, radars and other equipment that monitors southern Lebanon. Though the attack was light and failed, however there was a realisation that southern Lebanon could be another front. Further escalations could take place in the West Bank and the Golan Heights, which is heavily fortified. But the biggest worry for the Israeli government is an Intafada that spreads through the West Bank.
Some Gazans see the evacuation of northern Gaza as nothing other than a continuation of an Israeli plan to sequestrate territory. They feel that Israel’s intention is to carry out another nakba, which translates as catastrophe. The nakba was the forced displacement of Palestinians from Israel during the 1948 war, and the Palestinians do not believe that they will return to their homes after the fighting. Marc Lynch, believes that Biden’s argument for aid corridors is a mistake as it accomplishes only one thing and that is the depopulation of Gaza and “a new wave of of permanent refugees. It would also,[…]offer the right wing extremists in Netanyahu’s government a clear road map for doing the same in Jerusalem and the West Bank.”
There has been a steady escalation of land confiscation across the West Bank by the settlers with government support. There has also been settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, which has created challenges for the Palestinian Authority, who seem unable to place pressure on the Israeli government. This has created an angry public, which the Palestinian Authority seemed to be unwilling or unable to address. The US attempt to broker an Israeli-Saudi normalisation plan seems to have also been a catalyst to the events on the 7th October and helped Hamas make the decision to attack Israel.
It is the failure of the US, Israel and the Palestinian Authority to gain any form of traction towards peace talks and an argument that underpins the two state solution, which seems to have been at the forefront of the argument. The Palestinian Legislator are paying lip service to outcomes that they are unable to control or even have a say in the operational activities of Hamas in Gaza, which means that they are powerless to determine any outcomes from talks that could negate them from future agreements.
In 2018, Hamas gained popularity through a mass non violent march to the border fence. This was known as the Great March of Return, which ended with Israeli soldiers firing live rounds and causing massive bloodshed. In contrast, in 2021 Hamas fired missiles and their leadership believed that they had gained significant popularity among the Palestinian community in Jerusalem and the West Bank, who were rioting against the confiscation of Palestinian homes in Jerusalem and provocation by Israeli hardliners in the al Aqsa mosque complex. Hamas have gained traction over Palestinians, they are seen as proactive and analysts believe that through the shifting arguments that Hamas have made, and believe that the attack on 7th October was initially planned in Tehran.
If there is to be an invasion of Gaza by the IDF, there will be uncertainty as to whether Israel will be able to keep casualties to a minimum, Hamas must have planned for an invasion and must be ready to fight a long term campaign. Even if Israel does succeed in toppling Hamas, they will be faced with the problem of the next government in Gaza and what to do next in a territory that it withdrew from in 2005. If it was to return to the territory of Gaza, the IDF will be fighting an insurgency that will in the long term prove disastrous for the IDF. Israel will be forced into prohibitive warfare that it once thought had come to an end and the test for Israel will be whether the youth of Gaza could be brought towards an outcome that is not so militarised.
At the moment Israel has world opinion on its side, but a war in Gaza and the mass casualties that this would bring could change how Israel will be seen Internationally. The promise that Israel has with the signing of the Abraham Accord and the possibility of a relationship with Saudi Arabia, means that Israel has to tread carefully not to further antagonise its friends in the Middle East. However, the hostages that have been taken by Hamas leave the question whether agreements can be met with a force that committed so many atrocities and holds hostages in return for negotiations.
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