Current Affairs

There is nothing quite like the spite of Putin, the end of Karabakh’s Armenian population is down to Armenia moving closer to the West. But the reasoning behind Putin’s negation of the Armenian population is down to larger concerns for the Russian government. The war in Ukraine has stripped the Russian military from much of its resources and the uneasy peace in Nagorno Karabakh sponsored by the European Union and the United States led to the Kremlin moving closer to Azerbaijan and distancing itself from the pro-western government of Pashinyan in Armenia. A cynical move by Moscow, but in the eyes of Putin a necessary move that is designed to weaken the Presidency in Armenia and bring about a new government that has closer links with Russia.

If there are lessons to be learnt then the sustainability of a small enclave fighting for its national identity is a war that will be lost in the long term as these forever wars are slowly being ended. The enclaves in Syria must be shuddering with the realisation that the West is powerless to act in conflicts that are dragging on and burning through resources. The lesson learnt is that there are other arguments that are bigger and resources will not continue to be burnt through if there are no other options.

The Palestinians are slowly getting used to being powerless and watching themselves being shepherded into smaller enclaves as the Israelis need for land is moving towards the natural conclusion that is Eretz Israel. The Palestinians are merely standing by watching the Israelis tie up agreements with the Middle East and if as expected a deal is tied up between Netanhayu’s government and Saudi Arabia, the Palestinians can expect the end game to their independent state that was betrayed by a peace process that did not stand up to scrutiny during thirty years of inaction.

The Armenian’s in Nagorno Karabakh did not stand a chance as their alienation from the outside world was compounded by a siege when the Lachin corridor was taken by Azerbaijani forces. But this does not change the demographics of regions that are pro-Russia such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are situated in Georgia. The might of the Russian forces will protect enclaves that are pro Moscow, whatever the outcome will be in Ukraine. But the question has to be, will Russia continue to put up with Western leaning governments such as Georgia and Armenia. Will they be destabilised now that there is a split between the West and East that has been deeply engrained by the war in Ukraine.

Yet the European Union is enlarging, it has put Ukraine and Moldova on candidate status and there are murmurings that Armenia and Georgia will tie up to the European flag in the future, when this would happen nobody quite knows. It takes seven years on average for candidates to join the European Union, but that itself could prove a difficult transition for Armenia and Georgia as the technicalities for membership are compounded by regulations that are tough and Russia generally interferes with the economies of these countries. There are also strong pro-Russian camps that don’t want a tie up with the European Union, but support is generally strong in these countries to be free of Russian interference in their affairs.

The Russian’s will protect what they see as their commonwealth of independent states and whether that includes military force, which has already been realised in states such as Kazakhstan, when the army put down riots in January 2022. The movement naturally from spheres of influence to new arguments is negated by the Kremlin’s entrenched view of the world. Areas such as Chechniya that fought a brutal civil war is in a virtual lock down that is being ruled by a brutal dictator, but Moscow’s determination to hold onto these states, is also symbolic of its centralised view of its power.

This is also true of what Russia sees of Western influence in Ukraine, the special military operation was to stop the movement of European integration and that itself meant the invasion of a sovereign state. The war in Ukraine itself is a realisation that Russia is losing the larger battle of influence, as new nations embrace democratic government and turn their back on authoritarian regimes. To a degree this is the reasoning behind the Armenian’s refusing to live under Azerbaijan’s rule. The question of human rights is at the forefront of criticism of Azerbaijan governance, secondary to this argument is that there is no democracy in this autocratic nation, which has locked up those that challenge the leadership of Aliyev.

Though there are elections in Russia next year, the authoritarianism of Putin is still expected to continue, but the war in Ukraine will open him up to criticism not just from the glitterati that surround his presidency, but from states in the federation that are being starved of their resources as the sanctions bite ever harder in these areas that are rich in natural resources. The centralisation of the Russian state itself cannot continue to control the enclaves that are being starved of their own resources. As said earlier, there is a natural movement to new alliances and with new pipelines being routed into China from these states, there will be a demand for these resources to be shared more evenly.

The European Union and the United States are moving towards integrating Armenia into the world, they have increased subsidies to the government and are helping through packages to the Armenian government to integrate the refugees from Nagorno Karabakh, and are helping the Armenian economy to get through the crisis. There has also been NATO exercises with the Armenian defence force, which should bolster the Armenian army with new weapons to fight any further incursions on its territory, but there are dangers in the future for Armenia and that is whether Azerbaijan will push for further territory, which will bring about further influence by Russia.

If Armenia and Georgia are to be part of the European Union they will have to pass a tough test, which will bring them closer to the West. Russia, is going to continually haemorrhage influence as nations in their sphere of influence sought out partners that will be more reliable and less intrusive. Wider arguments of influence will be determined by movements away from authoritarian rule and towards democratic argument, as the elite become more exposed to outside forces and influences. But there will be an ending to the forever wars and enclaves that are fighting for their right to self determination will be forgotten because states will look towards arguments that are beneficial to their own sphere of influence.