Current Affairs

There is no such thing as the innocent in the language of an aggressor, we have seen it in Syria, where hundreds of thousands have died, but the reality is that the world has turned its back on these forever conflicts and forgotten the innocent. Nagorno Karabakh has the unenviable history of a state in siege that has not quite capitulated, though it has surrendered and wonders what its future will be. A conflict that is over thirty years old, it has a history of absolutes that have determined an end game that is leaving ghosts where people once existed.

The ugliness of this conflict is that nobody is quite innocent, just by existing there is guilt for atrocities that have taken place in the past, but the truth is that the arguments determining a peaceful outcome are wholly in the hands of the aggressor, in this case Azerbaijan. With the help of Turkey and Israel the Azerbaijani’s have effectively cut off the Artskh from their motherland, which is Armenia. It has been a cruel war that has taken so many lives and been destroyed by so many arguments that have devalued the reality of what it is, a conflict that was never resolved after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The world recognises Azerbaijan’s sovereignty of the region, but what happens to the refugees and those living in the region that have no allegiance to the Azerbaijan state. Is it a case of repeating history and ethnically cleansing the region of Armenian’s as the Armenian’s ethnically cleansed the region of Azerbaijani’s after the first war. What about the historical sites that mean so much to the Armenian’s, will they still exist in the future, these are the questions that the Armenian’s are asking, what happens now?

Of course all rhetorical arguments have answers, but the Azerbaijani security forces have questions to answer and that is their propensity to violence. The loss of ten Armenians in 2020, when their heads were cut off challenges those willing to live in Azerbaijan, when there is such a proclivity towards violent outcomes. Azerbaijan has made promises to the Armenian’s living in the area, but what are promises when there is no democracy and very little respect for human rights in Azerbaijan.

There have been promises that food would be delivered and the corridors opened to humanitarian aid, but this has not been forthcoming, so the Armenians living in the region are moving with their feet to the border with Armenia, waiting to get across and becoming refugees. There has also been renewed bombardments and intermittent killings in an area that has already surrendered, so what is happening. It seems the Azebaijani’s have already taken the decision to ethnically cleanse the area of Armenian’s, though they have made promises to respect the Armenian’s willing to stay.

What the integration of Nagorno Karabakh will look like after being integrated into Azerbaijan can already be seen with the destruction of Armenian historical sites in the areas that have already been taken, so the question is whether there will be any Armenian’s in the area once the territory is integrated into the Azerbaijan state. Though there have been promises made to respect the Armenian’s who stay, there are questions that need to be asked.

So what does Azerbaijan offer to those willing to stay. The Azerbaijan government has promised to invest in the area, new roads and investment in business’ to get the economy back on its feet. With its vast oil wealth it has promised to get the economy moving and bring in new opportunities, but whether that includes Armenian’s willing to stay is another question, though they have promised not to impinge on the Armenian’s who accept their rule.

Politically the European Union, Russia and the United states have all mediated between Yerevan and Baku, which led to two peace treaties, one sponsored by Russia and the other by the European Union and the United States. Armenia recognised Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, with Nagorno Karabakh. However, the relationship between Armenia and Russia deteriorated, especially when NATO and Armenia held joint exercises with the outcome being that Russian peacekeepers withdrew from the Lachin Corridor connecting Nagorno Karabakh with Armenia, which was contrary to the November 2020 ceasefire agreement.

Senior US officials, including Samantha Power, the head of the US Agency for International Development, and Yuri Kim, the State Departments acting assistant secretary for Europe and Eurasian affairs, were in Armenia on Monday.

“The United States is deeply concerned about reports on the humanitarian conditions in Nagorno Karabakh and calls for unimpeded access for international humanitarian organisations and commercial traffic.”

In a statement on Monday, Russia’s Foreign ministry blamed the Armenian leadership, saying that “it ran to the west” instead of working with Russia and Azerbaijan to achieve peace.

To date, more than 10,000 refugees have crossed into Armenia, David Babayan an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, the President of Artskh, said that “ninety nine point nine percent of Armenians prefer to leave our historic lands,” and that Armenian’s do not accept Azerbaijan’s promise to guarantee their rights as the region is integrated.

So is there any hope that Armenians will exist in Nagorno Karabakh, that seems highly unlikely unless Azerbaijan opens up the humanitarian corridor as an option that will finally end this thirty year conflict. The extra shelling has set out Azerbaijan’s end game and is forcing the Armenian’s to flee, but the question is will there ever be an outcome that will see this area find peace after thirty years of conflict.