Current Affairs

There is a joke about time zones that ends with Putin complaining that he had commiserated with Prigozhin’s family before the plane had taken off. It is a great joke, which was told by the Prime Minister of Albania. But the element of truth is hard to miss, it is widely recognised that Prigozhin was assassinated along with other senior members of Wagner, a mercenary force that fought in Ukraine Africa and Syria. So what happens now after the event seems to be the question, Russia no longer has any type of opposition either to the right or to a Eurocentric centre, those that challenge Putin are either dead or locked up.

Of course there have been others who have been arrested, Igor Girkin an ex FSB officer was known for his radical arguments, but mostly for his command of pro Russia rebels in the Donetsk Ukraine. Ruthless, self serving but most of all a loud mouth whose disappearance from public life didn’t lead to demonstrations or public anger.

Without a hint of remorse, Putin led the eulogy to Prigozhin and described his former chef, friend and decorated mercenary as a “misguided, but a talented businessman.” Putin did not mention Wagner in Ukraine or elsewhere and did not attend the funeral. In a way that was the end of Prigozhin, his rebellion and the Wagner mercenaries. It seemed Putin had strangled the ultra patriots who have dominated the thinking of the Russian media.

In many ways Putin has put to an end the argument of succession, he has cleansed the Russian state of the Liberals and the ultra nationalists. The argument of who is running the Kremlin has been put in place and the realisation that Putin is once again all powerful challenges the voices that shout ultra nationalist slogans, who now fear death or prison. Putin seems to have taken control of the narrative once again and those that support the war are now more focussed on Putin and his brand of nationalism.

But it was the popularity of Prigozhin’s and Igor Girkin’s criticism of the state that seemed popular with the electorate, so where will the voices that challenge the state come from? In an article in Foreign Affairs, titled the Russians are getting better, they detail how Russia is fighting a more sustainable war. One of the arguments is that they have joined up the lines of command and are almost fighting as a unified army. But more prevalent is that the army seem to have taken the command of the narrative coming from the battlefield, which gives the initiative back to the Kremlin.

There are elections in Russia next year, whoever stands against Putin would be brave to do so. But the question will be whether the families who have lost loved ones in the war in Ukraine will find a voice. The arguments of pensions, payoffs for deaths and whether the rights of Prigozhin’s men will be recognised by the state will be prevalent. There are also questions about the economy and how it is holding up because of the war that should be challenging for Putin to answer.

Eighteen months into the war with Ukraine, NATO and the European Union have not flinched in their support of the Ukrainians, so the war is not going Putin’s way. Credible assessments of the way that Putin is thinking, cannot escape the arguments that he has put forward, such as greater Russia and an almost religious virtuosity to the way that he believes in the outcome. However, he maybe playing for time now that the war is at stand still in the hope that Trump will win the election in the United States.

To a degree the mind games played by Putin are at their beginning, Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainians has led to numerous civilian deaths, families and children are not off the target list, meaning that the Russian’s are purposefully targeting the weak, children and the most vulnerable families, in an effort to spread terror and break the Ukrainians will to fight the war. But it seems that the Ukrainians are not being cowered and are willing to fight to reintegrate the occupied territory back into Ukraine.

But significantly changes have taken place in Russia’s domestic politics. There has been dismissals of senior officials within the Ministry of Defence thought to be allies of Prigozhin, which includes General Surovikin, who was relieved of his command. But those who supported Prigozhin have had a significant impact on Russia’s political parties. Just Russia an opposition party in the Duma, which holds 28 seats in the Duma has lost support because of its association with Prigozhin. This is important because Russia is about to enter its electoral cycle. The local elections start in September and thousand of seats are up for grabs, which will give an idea to Putin and his United Russia, how the electorate are thinking. Then in March next year is the Presidential election, which Putin has indicated he will stand in.

Do the elections matter when all opposition has been imprisoned, exiled or destroyed. The problem is that information lines to the Kremlin have been censored by those that are unwilling to give their commander in chief bad news in fear of reprisals. According to RUSI, the Kremlin are being starved of information and are finding it hard to engage with what is happening in the country. “For this reason, Kremlin friendly surveys and elections are two of the best methods of gauging public trust in institutions and the president, as well as attitudes to the war.”

This is also an important test for the Kremlin as well as NATO, who will be able gauge whether there will be a swift conclusion to the war, or whether it will drag on. If the electorate are supportive of the war, Putin will argue that he has a mandate to continue the war in whatever form he chooses and as such, he will continue the conflict in the region. But if the election results do not turn out as supportive of the United Russia party this will act as a catalyst for change to the argument, but the manipulation of the press and media itself does not necessarily mean that the Kremlin will be able to gauge a true outcome to the message that the electorate have voted on. But it will give the Kremlin a new set of arguments and ideas of which politicians are able to find votes and which politicians should be cast aside, because of the danger they pose to the Kremlin or just can’t be trusted.

Prior to the death of Prigozhin, there was a poll held by Tzargrad in June, finding that Putin polled 61.9% of the vote, while Prigozhin polled 8.9%. The poll indicated that Prigozhin would come second in an election to Putin and that itself was indicative in other polls. Whether Prigozhin intended to run in a presidential election is essentially indicative of the way that Russia is moving. The second most popular party is the Communist party which polled 3.5%, which itself challenges the way that Russia can view the opposition to Putin. Those named were dissidents like Navalny, who received very little support and as such Russia move towards a eurocentric state is very unlikely.

Putin has moved Russia towards an Asiatic view, he is moving Russia closer to Asia and in a speech on education he tasked educators to teach Asian languages and economically has tried to move the Russian economy towards China. This concentration and recalibration of Russian industry towards the east has empowered the Kremlin and distilled the political argument to determinants of Asiatic arguments. The G20 in India has distinguished the different approaches between the East and West and there has been a failure to agree on statements concerning Russia, because of Asia’s new reliance on Russian mineral wealth.

Whether or not Russia moves its marketplace away from the West, the reality is that Putin is fighting to survive within a country that has destabilised its neighbours in the West. Whether Putin knows what is actually happening in the country, has not been challenged by the polls or media that have pushed a Putin agenda, which hints at the country backing his leadership into the next election. The opposition to Putin is now either dead or in prison and as such the next election will not hold any surprises for the Kremlin and its powerbase.

The elements that Russia really needs are elections that concentrate on the arguments that are most effecting the country, this is especially true of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s movement away from the Western nations. Though the Russian economy is to a degree suffering from inflation and a currency that is weak, there have been no repercussions for the Kremlin. This also indicates that the war in Ukraine will continue into the foreseeable future, which should enable NATO and Ukraine to understand that Russia has no intention of withdrawing its forces.