Current Affairs

Can Libya ever unite in peace again seems to be a thorny issue among those that question the countries instability. It has been twelve years since the overthrow of Ghadaffi, but there is an impasse that has been magnified by the country being split in two by two opposing governments. The politics of the east of the country are dominated by Haftar, who also leads the Libyan National Army (LNA) and in the west is the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Authorities in Tripoli had reported that 55 were killed and a further 123 were wounded in the first clashes to breakout for over a year. The reason for the clashes was the arrest of brigade head of the 444 Colonel Mahmoud Hamza. But the argument itself is about his refusal to accept elements of the upcoming elections, especially the election of General Haftar, the leader of the LNA who wants the presidency.

The arrest of Colonel Mahmoud Hamza was more a political gambit by the Special Deterrence Force to gain control of the political situation that has paralysed the UN sponsored talks between the east and west of Libya. Though the 444 are only active in Tripoli, the skill that Mahmoud Hamza has demonstrated and his popularity with his para-military force, had led to an impasse politically. The attempt to silence the Colonel was made possible by the control of the airport by the Special Deterrence Force, and each paramilitary trying to position themselves as brokers for the upcoming elections.

Though peace was attained after calls by the Government of National Unity in Tripoli, the international community and the UN special envoy, there is an unease in the capital, because the factions themselves are beyond the parameters of the law. But the bargaining that took place to get Colonel Hamza freed has enabled the government a tiny bit of credibility for their ability to find a solution to Hamza’s arrest and detention. But the lack of accountability for the fighting has led to questions of whether the situation is reminiscent of Lebanon. The fact that situations can become tense and at worst escalate easily, questions whether these factions have any allegiance to the government in Tripoli.

Anas el Gomati, speaking on Al Jazeera, argues that this is a question of whether the 5 plus 5 military talks were undone by Hamza, as he had opposed the powerbases of the factions who would welcome a resolution to the impasse between the GNU and LNA. The fear of those who are dependent on their seats for a stream of revenue also brings to the fore the question of whether there can be any success in the elections or whether the status quo will remain.

So why not a Haftar Presidency? the LNA control two thirds of the territory, but Haftar has failed to take Tripoli twice. The reasoning behind why Haftar would not take power is down to the split in the political map of the country. But the LNA have also been accused of war crimes and Haftar has been taken to court accused of torture, the trial is being held in the United States because he owns property and was a resident in Virginia for twenty years.

Haftar, was given the title Field Marshall by Ghadaffi when Libya attacked Chad in 1986. The Libyan’s failed in their war against Chad and Haftar was taken prisoner. There were no negotiations for a peace, so Haftar was imprisoned in Chad with 300 of his men. After the start of the uprising in 2011, Haftar returned to Libya, where he became a key commander in the rebel forces in the east. Once the conflict was over, Haftar did not reappear again until 2014, in a television interview he called for Libyans to rebel against the GNC, because towns and cities in the east had become extremist footholds. Though Haftar did not have the power to challenge the extremists, the message that he had given was popular because al-Qaeda, Ansar-al-Sharia and others had begun a campaign against the police, military and other public servants, in order to foment revolution, gain more power and control the oil fields. The rebellion by the Islamists failed and though there were questions about torture, Haftar was feted by his forces and gained popularity in the east of Libya.  

Haftar, in an interview in 2019, argued that Libya was not ready for democracy, he felt that Libya was a young a state unable to manage the complexities that come with democratic institutions. With the war crimes allegations against Haftar and his forces, there has been relatively little support for him in Western nations apart from France. Haftar and the LNA have reached settlements with the Tripoli regime, because LNA control the oil fields in the east, which makes Haftar one of the most powerful political entities in Libya. The deal to bring both the east and western Libyan governments together is dependent on a negotiated UN brokered electoral process, this includes 5 plus 5 talks, which are aimed at bringing the military actors into a settlement that could avoid the factional fighting that took place last week.

But there is opposition to Haftar especially in Tripoli, the government in Tripoli have opened the door for elections, but Hamzas opposition has led to tension that escalated to the point that import corridors that were once open were threatened with closure, which threatened Tripoli itself. The release of Hamza, has not settled the problems of the paramilitaries, but has led to questions concerning paramilitaries and their power in Tripoli. Which leads to questions of whether the Tripoli government has the ability to be part of a national government for the re-unification of Libya.

Many Libyans suspect that their political leaders have no interest in a settlement or elections. The UN has focussed on national elections and forming a interim government to oversee the vote. But the UN representative told the Security Council on Tuesday that the UN was working with the Presidential Council Mohammed al-Menfi to find a way to resolve the issue affecting the transition from an issue led argument to an electoral.

In an interview with Reuters, Tim Eaton a researcher argued that “A negotiation over a new interim government has a chance because there is a carrot for rivals to participate, but once it is created, all incentives for elections disappear and Bathily has no stick.” This itself challenges the concept of elections ever taking place and an unelected council would emerge as an interim government with its leaders determined by promises that elections will at some stage in the future take place.

There is a weakness in the argument for the reunification of Libya and that is the widespread opposition by key players who have undermined the process. The flip flopping by the UN demonstrates the UNs weakness in moving the argument beyond the interim government and whether there is a possibility of taking Libya beyond autocratic government, leads to the question of whether Libya is able to form a coherent national debate that allows new voices to stand in a free electoral process that empowers a new unified government for all Libyans. It has been twelve years of battles, violence and human rights abuses since Libya was a settled state, but the autocracy of Ghadaffi has empowered structures that have battled for the identity of Libya. It is the structural confusion of Ghadaffi’s autocratic leadership, that has led to Libya being confused about the values that democracy will bring to the Libyans if they can hold an election for a new parliament.