Current Affairs

The Middle East welcomed Syria back into the Arab League, and yet the country is still divided through conflict. By welcoming al-Assad back into the fold of the Arab League, Arab leaders who once provided the weapons and finance to oust him have taken a step back from pressuring the regime. If anything it was always a question of leverage, money, which they no longer invest in Syria, as there is very little chance of investments getting a return from the war ravaged economy.

It has been twelve years since the suspension of Syria from the League. The decision to obstruct proposals put forward by the Arab League, in an attempt to stop the civil war was a failure, Assad cracked down on demonstrators with extreme force and cruelty. It was one of the only times that the Arab League moved in unison; but the outcome of their decision to isolate the Syrian regime from the Arab states has enabled Iran to come to the aid of the Syrian regime and increase its influence in the region. Syria became a pariah state with only Iran and Russia as allies.

Though the war in Syria, to a degree has been quelled, the presence of Iran and its proxies, (Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia reserves), has led to a certain amount of weakness in the Syrian state, which keeps it involved in the war, because of its weakness and loss of sovereignty. This is especially true in northern Syria, where there are Islamic, Turkish, American and Kurdish forces, which keeps Syria tied closely to the Russian and Iranian military and their proxies in the rest of the country.

The war in Syria has led to a refugee crisis, not just in the Middle East but also Europe as well, but the main home for the refugees is Turkey, who are looking for a settlement in the conflict, so the refugees can be repatriated to Syria. But the issue of refugees is not top of the agenda for the League, the Gulf states have pushed for the normalisation of the relationship between the League nations and Syria. But Europe and US have not changed their position on the Syrian war, so it is an act by the Arab League that is politically formulated for the Arab League to choose how they approach Syria, especially as there is no hint what-so-ever of the Europeans and American’s signifying a policy of change towards the conflict.  

While the Gulf States played a role early on in the civil war, in recent years they have been eclipsed by a Turkish military presence, which has isolated pockets in northern Syria, with their proxies. Though the Turkish argue that they are protecting refugees from the war and are waging a war against the PKK in Syrian territories, they are also enabling elements to continue the war. The recalculation by the Arab states to reopen the door to al Assad, is also a realisation that the war is continuing to drag on the Leagues ability to gain influence in Syria, in many ways it is recalibrating its relationship with Syria in order to rebalance the influence of the League, not only in Syria but also the states that have been brought into the civil war.

But if Syria believed that the opening of the door by the Arab League was to lead to investment, not only from League members but also Europe and America, they are very wrong. If Assad believes the rapprochment itself would lead to Western nations to limit sanctions, which would enable the League members to invest in Syria’s reconstruction, there are other arguments that need to be taken into consideration, especially as the US Congress is in the process of strengthening sanctions on the Syrian regime; meaning that investment in the Syrian regime is highly unlikely, as US and European sanctions mean there will be a legal and political barriers that would not only obstruct investors with more worthwhile investments, especially as the Syrian population has little spending power, an economy that has been crushed and infrastructure that has been damaged by war.

There is also little likelihood that Syria can be re-united as a whole, the war has taken its toll on the north, but it is highly unlikely that the Islamists will lose their support and the territorial integrity of the nation will be difficult to attain. The north holds some of Syria’s most important resources, water, wheat and oil. Attempts to re-integrate the north back into Syrian territory would cause a conflict between Turkish, US forces which have outposts in the north, as well as Syrian Democratic Forces and Kurdish allies to the Americans. Also many refugees fear Assad and fear what would come with the rapproachment of the Arab League and Syrian regime and what it would do to their ability to survive in the squalid refugee camps that border Turkey.

It was Assad’s intransigence that is mainly blamed for the continuation of the war, though the bombing continues in northern Syria, the war has come close to its conclusion. The Syrian regime has to a degree settled for the territorial concessions that have been forced on it. But this keeps Syria divided and though there have been efforts to find a compromise the failure of the United Nations, Arab League, Europeans and Americans to find a compromise -has failed, because of the ruthless determination by the Assad family to hold onto power.  

There have been calls for the repatriation of civilians to Syria, but the fear of Europe and the countries affected, has led to fear that because of Assad being brought in from the cold, that repatriations from Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan will be the first to repatriate civilian refugees. But the very ruthlessness of the regime has made this scenario highly unlikely however much countries in the Middle East and Europe want to solve their refugee problems.

The Syrian war is likely to go through a number of stages yet before a peace can be found. But it is the failure of all parties to challenge the absolute savagery that has marked this war. There are also geo-political arguments that need to be challenged and until the Middle East, Europe, America and Russia and Iran come to the table for talks about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, this war is likely to rumble on for generations. The Arab League have taken a step, but because Syria is an economic basket case it will take a long time before refugees can return to a Syria they once called home.