Current Affairs

Twelve years since the fall of the autocratic regime of Ghaddafi, Libya a country of over seven million is split between two factions: The Government of National Accord (GNA), based in Tripoli, dominates the political landscape of the west, and the Libyan National Army, dominates the east of Libya. Despite the calm over the last couple of years and a military stalemate between the forces that have been fighting, the political situation became tense when Prime Minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah refused to step down as care taker prime minister, because the House of Representatives (based in Tobruk) appointed Fathi Bashagha, as prime minister. Bashagha failed to enter Tripoli in January 2023, to take the post.

The UN envoy for Libya, conceded that the government recognised by both the International community and the UN, was Abdul Dbeibah administration which left Bashagha powerless. Most commentators argue that Bashagha’s use of military force to enter Tripoli in 2022, led to his unpopularity and the refusal of the care taker government to recognise him as Prime Minister. After Bashagha’s failure to become prime minister of Libya, the Tobruk council reviewed their vote and stripped Bashagha of the leadership of the easts House of Representatives and accused him of corruption, which he denies.

Thanks in part to high global oil prices, Libya has experienced an upturn economically in both the east and west of the country. But the political problems remain a constant for Libyans, and the international community is trying to find a solution to the political division in Libya. The UN envoy for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has set out plans for elections in Libya, but there seems very little enthusiasm for either the GNU, or from a war weary population.

General Haftar believes that there cannot be a unified army without democratic elections for the Government of National Unity(GNU) and Presidency. But politicians seem not to be in a hurry to agree to elections, which could de-stabilise their own positions in both the western and eastern political assemblies. However the economic argument seems to be a central argument to how Libya goes forward, though the economy is booming, two thirds of gas and oil originate in the east of Libya and not all revenue goes to the the central government, which is proving to be problematic for the question of unification of the two parliaments.

Outside powers (Europe and the United States) would like to see a democratically elected single assembly, but the Libyan people believe this could lead to a new war if there was an election, especially if General Haftar was not elected President.

The powers that are militarily involved in Libya, are Turkey, UAE and Egypt. Turkey has bases in the West and to a degree have shored up the government in the west during the civil war and the Egyptians and UAE have shored up the eastern power base of General Haftar. The Turks have begun talks with the UAE and Egypt, which has defused tension in the country, but General Haftar has demanded the removal of the Turkish military, he argues that Turkey has Ottoman ambitions in the region, which must be removed. Western nations, especially America has called for the removal of the Wagner mercenaries advising the LNA, who the US and Europe argue are a barrier to a peaceful transitional government.

Though elections were meant to take place in June 2023, they have been put on hold until all the political parties agree a constitution. The steering group working on the constitution is made up of all the political parties and they hope their work will defuse tension among the representatives in the two opposing assemblies. The Western nations who pressured the Libyans to hold elections, are quiet, because once again the vast reserves of oil and gas are being exploited and flowing into Europe.

Essentially, the Turkish, Emirates and Egyptians are now the power brokers of the region. The war that lasted ten years has been disastrous for the country, the economy and its stability. But arguments about the reason for the war has always been about unification, which cannot take place as the governments are tied up in the division of the nation that has been corrupted by an elite that is selling the states assets. Each of the power brokers have entered the Libyan markets with companies, that are mainly in the oil sector. Also it is necessary for the Libyan elite to service these entities, National Army under General Haftar, which is eating into the resources of the state.

There is the possibility of a third power in Libya, and that is Bashagha, whose power base is Siirte. Whether the argument of corruption sticks or not, there is a question whether his power base will begin to be a third force in the Libyan conundrum. But the question at the moment seems to be whether the elections put forward by the UN envoy will be able to take place, or Libya is sleep walking into being under occupation, rather than as envisioned in 2011, a free democratic nation.

The Western nations that fought against Ghaddafi have pulled back from Libya and are taking a diplomatic approach to the assemblies in the east and west of the country. But the question is whether Libya itself is a failed state, which is directionless because of the civil war. The concept of a government or national unity seems to be put on hold, as the politicians squabble over a constitution, how the state will manage the transition to democracy and whether the military, paramilitary, and the powers supporting the factions, agree to a unified Libya under a single government, is another question.

Europe is placing pressure on Libya to stop the migrant sea crossings from Libyan shores, and demand that action is taken against the migrants who are undertaking this very dangerous journey. Paramilitaries patrol the streets and arrest anyone that they think may have value, but there are detainees that have been held for some time without judicial review of their case, but some do make it to court.

According to Claudia Gazzini, Tripoli is open, the restaurants and other entertainment in Tripoli makes the city vibrant, but Western diplomats still do not believe that state is safe and move carefully through the streets with bodyguards.

The question of human rights and torture have been mostly swept under the carpet by the Western powers, so the absolutes dictated by those who have tortured, destroyed the civil rights of citizens and those who have committed war crimes, is understood that it can continue into the future if the West does not comply with sanctions placed on those who have been doing this.

After twelve years – is Libya a failed state or is this the type of transition that it must go through before elections can be held and a new government is installed as a unity government. But the endemic corruption and thirst for power has been caused by the huge wealth that can be generated through oil revenue, which has not just created a mini boom, it also fuels the paramilitaries and powers that keep the status quo as it is today. Whether Libya remains divided as it does today, is dependent on an elite that wants to nation build rather than be part of everyday corruption, that keeps an elite in power for the sake of wealth through corruption.