Current Affairs

The elections held in Turkey this month were for the Parliament and Presidency, they demonstrated that with all the problems that Turkey has, there is still powerful support for the AKP. And after twenty years of the AKP being in power there is a recession, monetary policy that has been skewered through eccentric beliefs that have led to high inflation and an earthquake, which has led to questions being asked about government corruption and laissez faire planning, yet the AKP was still able to gain a majority in parliament.  

But there are other questions to be asked and that is whether the autocracy that reflects Tayip Erdogan’s presidency, is nearing its end, even though he won 49% of the popular vote. In the twenty years of power Erdogan has imprisoned members of the opposition, become more conservative and in this election appealed to the more nationalistic and right wing populas of the country.

There is a problem in Turkey and that is that the CHP have never been able to gain more than 27 percent of the electorate. In this election they gained a 3 percent swing and were able to win 25 percent of the electorate. There were a number of issues, but the most prescient was that the alliances that they made in order to contest the election, was neither strong enough or willing to make a stand in the election for the CHP alliance. But there is also a distrust of political parties entering into power sharing agreements, because of the deadlock in the governments of the 1990’s, which led to a short shelf life for these governments.

At the centre of AKP’s manifesto, was the rights of women, who they view as a central pillar of the Turkish family. Though there are arguments for women’s rights in Turkey, there is a conservatism that argues families are a core asset of the economy and though women have strongly supported the CHP, there is an element of women who support the AKP. The reason is that Turkey is still a conservative culture that Erdogan has recognised as a core argument in his election manifesto. But is it because women are more conservative or is it that 30 million Turks receive benefits from the state and are determined to support the party that is willing to continue providing benefits to families.

The tactics of the AKP were xenophobic, Erdogan argued that there were foreign forces supporting the CHP. those forces though never named led to the targeting of the Kurdish minority, who will have a tough time when the elections are over. Parliament will move from centre right politics to a nationalist argument, because the AKP have teamed up with Sinan Ogan, a nationalist right wing politician, which moves Parliament towards a nationalist agenda.

But it is the economic argument that is a central pillar to the arguments in this election. There is an element of trust that has not yet been diminished in Erdogan’s favour. The electorate still remember the growth of the economy before the recession and he still has support from the business community. But the rallying cry from Erdogan was that he was the only person that could fix the economy. The problems in Turkey’s economy are routed in the level of the interest rates that have been set by the government, Erdogan, because of his beliefs argues that interest rates are “the mother and father of all evil.” But the problems affecting the Turkish economy is down to inflation and the Lira has devalued by forty four percent since 2021, making it expensive for the average citizen to afford the most basic of necessitates. In 2021, there were queues for subsidized bread in Istanbul, where officials said the cost of living was up by 50 percent in a year. Also in 2021, the Lira devalued by 44 percent against the US Dollar, the fall in the Lira meant that commodities became more expensive and as a country that imports the majority of its raw materials this has not only affected the factory gate but also the average citizen. In 2023, the economy has improved, but this is down to Turkey not placing sanctions on the Russian economy, which has also meant cheaper oil and gas is coming from Russia, also there is an export boom to the Russian Federation, which has been caused by the EU and the USA placing sanctions on Russia.

Investors are nervous about the presidential race that will be taking place on 28^th May, Turkey’s benchmark BIST-100 sank by 6.4 percent, which prompted the Istanbul exchange to halt trading. There is also uncertainty in Turkish Bonds, where investors are concerned whether another five years of Erdogan’s eccentric fiscal policy, will see a return on their investment. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence the cost of risk of default by the Turkish government rose by 27 percent. In a CNN interview with Moody’s, they argued that the “risk of volatility in Turkey’s economy and market’s was significant.” The US credit rating agency Fitch, argues that Turkey’s dwindling foreign reserves (because of Ankara’s support of the Lira), and has forecast that Turkey’s economy will face difficulties in the coming year if Erdogan is re-elected.

Kilicdarogulu, has vowed to revive Turkey’s democracy and return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions and rebuild ties with the West. But it is the promise of returning Turkey to a Parliamentary democracy, free political prisoners and open the door to those that are outside the Turkish political mainstream, which has resonated with the first time voters in this election. But Erdogan still has the ability to rally his supporters even after the dismal economic climate that has dampened the ability of Turkey to compete without supporting the Lira and it is the support of the poorer parts of Turkey that has enabled Erdogan to continue in this election as the front runner.