Current Affairs

The civilians of Sudan have once again been denied a voice and the generals who set on one another have become entrenched in a war that has no answers, other than a protracted civil war. The history of this war can be found in the contest for power between Burnham and Hemedti, where a three pronged argument can be found. The civilians, the Rapid Support Force and the Military, each with a different agenda.

More than 100 protesters have been killed since the coup in 2021, the hardline taken by the RSF and military was evident, but the shooting of an unarmed demonstrator whose murder seemed more controlled than before, made those watching realise that those who were trying to stop the demonstrations were becoming more desperate. The leader of the RSF, Hemedti, called for a proper trial of the officer who shot the demonstrator, and argued that the RSF would no longer be part of the killing or detention of protesters. This itself seemed a turning point and there seemed to be a movement towards a civilian government and General Fatah al Burnham moved on from the rhetoric of the RSF and in a statement said that the army was now willing to move on from government and withdrawal from politics altogether. This was in mid-march and it seemed that the cycle of dictatorial governance had been broken and the army (at least) were willing to negotiate their return to the barracks.

The tri-partite and the quad (America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and Emirates) began to negotiate the return of the military back to the barracks. There was hope that there would be a civilian government, but there was a gnawing problem and that was what to do with the RSF. Initially, the aim was to bring them into the army, a paramilitary force turned into a regular unit under the command of the military. But the time scale was determined by negotiations, Hemedti initially argued that this could be done over ten years, then an agreement of sorts settled on five years before the RSF could be integrated. The military pushed on and argued that it should happen over a two year period, but the leadership of the RSF could not or would not accept the two years.

The power struggle went on, until the outbreak of violence. Nobody has accepted that they were the reason for the outbreak of violence, but because of the ferociousness and the initial movement of the forces, there are those that suspect that the RSF were responsible. The taking of the television station, Presidential palace and attacks on air force bases led to a blackout of what was going on, but apart from the visciousness of the fighting, there is very little knowledge of who has the upper hand.

So the civilians who were on the verge of celebrating an end to military power are hiding in their homes as bullets, mortars and other weaponry is fired by those responsible for the breakdown of negotiations that were meant to bring in a new government. The fear is that those involved will move the battle out of Khartoum and into the provinces, with a further break up of the Sudanese state by not just the military and RSF but also warlords, determined by their own interests.

This is a civil war that was always going to happen, when the previous President Bashir split the Intelligence, military and allowed the RSF into a position of independence. The wealth tied up among these elements has empowered each of them, but most of all it has been about the independence of these elements that has led to the breaking up of a military that has been empowered for the past thirty years to govern, whether you believe or not that Bashir was ruled by a mind set determined to create a chaotic and weakened state for his own purposes.

This of course did not happen, instead he is meant to be residing in prison on charges that are meant to bring him into the Hague for genocide. There are arguments that the supporters of Bashir, have been taken into positions of power within the military government, but this does not explain the outbreak of violence. Hemedti, in a statement argued that the violence is attributable to the Bashir loyalists moving into position of power, and that Burnham is a stooge determined by the power of Bashir loyalists. So is Bashir the central pillar of the argument between the RSF and the military?

The Tri- partite and Quad powers have a few questions to answer about the outbreak of violence, they need to review what exactly has happened and whether pressure should have been placed on the military and RSF to bring Bashir and some of his supporters to the Hague, rather than allowing him to remain in Sudan.

Both sides have claimed that they were provoked and had no choice. Whether there were choices or not the military and RSF have proven that they cannot live with each other, whether the three day ceasefire holds or not, is a question of whether there are any voices placing pressure on them to realise that this is not a battle that winner takes all. It is a war that could go on for years, unless there are those talking sense to the military and the RSF. So the question is whether the embassies have moved out to quickly and left a vacuum, where sense could have been talked to the two warring factions. There have been calls to diffuse the situation, but whether this is enough or not is questionable.  

There have been reports that there have been battles all over Sudan, but the question is who is winning, there seems to be an information blackout that really leaves those trying to hold the peace in a hazy conundrum of where the pressure should be placed and how. Today was the day that Ahmed Kharoun left prison, he is a wanted Politician, who committed war crimes and is wanted by the Hague. Whether he was released in a mistake (as has been claimed) or not, does not bode well for the future of the Sudanese as a whole. Whether this is the first step to reintegrating the most obscene of the Bashir loyalists, challenges in what way that the outside forces will be able to negotiate a peace.

Could Sudan once again fall into the clutches of those loyal to Bashir seems to be the question, especially as Hemedti argues that the military would rather an Islamist government, which brings in another set of arguments. There are so many questions to ask, but if this ceasefire holds, then Sudan has a chance….