Current Affairs

China has argued in their twelve point peace plan that territorial integrity is paramount. They argue that the war should end and that the integrity of Ukraine should be respected under the United Nations recognition of its borders. Putin argues that the war will continue because he has now signed agreements with China for trade. If China is serious about its peace accord, then they would have placed pressure on Russia through trade, it is a question of what would have happened if pressure had been placed.

President Xi was received by Russia with all the pomp that could be mustered, but underneath the veneer there was an element that the Russians did not quite get what they wanted or needed. The fact that Russia on Xi Jinping’s leaving immediately returned to the threats and arguments that were common place before the visit, signifies that Russia has not taken into consideration the Chinese peace plan and to a degree have rejected the core elements of the twelve point plan.

There are analysts who think the plan would get President Xi the Noble Prize if the plan had been accepted by the Russian State and if it had been implemented, but in reality the analysts too have dismissed the plan as a theoretical argument that would work well for a future peace. But without the pressure coming from China to force the implementation there would be very little chance of it succeeding. But there are elements of the plan that have implications for Europe and NATO, the question is whether Putin would have ever accepted that there would have been a neutral and sovereign Ukraine in the future.

Was the plan also intended as an act to diffuse tensions in the Pacific, Pacific Rim and South China Sea, there seems to be an element of rapprochement. There is an element of argument that signifies a more reasonable China, that is quietly holding its hand out to ease the tension between China and the United States. But there is an element of risk that has been held as a signifier that does not question anything, other than not placing any further pressure on a diplomatic corp that accepted an invitation that was laced with danger and whether China would be a significant player in the argument of future rapprochements – not only in the war in Ukraine but also in the Pacific.

There has been silence from the White House, Brussels and London, the twelve point plan has not been trashed, but there has been diplomatic silence and to degree a diplomatic and political corp throughout the United States and Europe that is curious on how China will create the dialogue necessary to implement the peace plan.

To all intents and purposes, this is the first time that China (as a superpower) has stood on the world stage and pushed an argument that requires it to leverage its own muscle to get a peace plan in place. Of course there have been arguments that China does not want this to end badly for Putin, but as a whole China has taken the initiative to bring about a way to get peace in Europe. Whether it is determined to find a way to implement its argument, is another question, but this is China now dictating how an outcome to a war should come about.

There must be an element in the White House and across the Senate and Congress that is confused. First of all the Chinese stayed relatively quiet and concentrated on trade, rather than push the twelve point plan. But because the plan was publicized internationally, there are elements of pressure being placed on Putin et al. Russia’s answer was there are elements of the plan that it would consider, but as a whole rejected the plan in the politest of ways, and returned to haranguing the west.

Why is the plan significant to the West rather than Russia. It is a way of diffusing the tension that the West felt when President Xi Jinping accepted Russia’s invitation. But more it is Russia’s realisation that China is determined by trade with the West, rather than Russia’s needs. The deal China struck with Russia was for $180 billion dollars of gas and oil, which probably includes a discounted price that does not reach the $60 dollar per barrel mark. But the rest of the trade is determined by China making up for part of the shortfall that Russia lost in trade with Europe and the US.

Russia must recognise that it is a junior partner to China, and it would be economic suicide for China to arm Russia. There have been complaints from the West that China is aiding the Russian war machine through the export of semi-conductors and other technical equipment, but there is also a realisation that China has no intention of returning to a Cold War that ended in 1990, other than continue to argue with the United States about the sanctions being placed on it. There is a realisation that for all President Xi’s complaints, the Chinese economy is of paramount importance to the state. China’s economy is still sluggish and its economy is dependent on exports. The elements that could make it a further power are being sanctioned by the United States, and like all China’s imperatives, there is a determination to continue exporting worldwide, rather than act unilaterally with Russia and bring about a cold war determined by insular government.

China has made the decision not to return to a cold war economy, which has left Russia out in the cold. Of course this is Russia’s prerogative, but this makes Russia’s war with Ukraine far harder. China has had success diplomatically with Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is pushing its weight through initiatives, but by far the war in Ukraine is probably its biggest battle. China is not only dependent on Russian oil, it also imports grain and vegetable oil from Ukraine, so Ukraine has a little pull on China diplomatically, but not enough for a state visit.

At the same time as President Xi’s visit to Russia, The Japanese Prime Minister visited Ukraine. He placed a wreath in Bucha and highlighted the slaughter that had taken place there. He said “Japan will keep aiding Ukraine with the greatest effort to regain peace.” Japan has given Ukraine $5.5 billion and argues that it fears a possible impact of the war in East Asia, where China’s military has grown increasingly assertive and has escalated tension.

Asia is taking a significant interest in Europe and Russia, Japan has stopped importing oil from Russia and placed sanctions on the Russian economy, it is almost as though the war in Ukraine has ratchetted up the tensions in Asia, but China’s twelve point plan must come as something of a surprise to east Asia, because it calls for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. South Korea is likely to follow Japan’s lead and sanction Russian oil further.

To a degree China’s twelve point plan has left Russia further isolated and will in the future open some doors for China, but for Russia it is further isolated, other than trade there is just to much for China to lose if it armed Russia. If there was to be a cold war, then China would lose trade and manufacturing ability that has been imported into China from Western nations. Furthermore China would be forced into a technical blackspot, it is dependent on American and European technical knowledge, which would be withdrawn from China’s economy. Already, chip makers in Europe are questioning the logic of exporting technical equipment to China and further US sanctions would isolate the Chinese from the economic growth they crave, so Russia is likely to fight a cold war alone.

 Whether you believe that China’s twelve point plan is sincere is dependent how you view China’s deals with Russia. Russia is heading towards a precipice if further sanctions are placed on it by nations that are importing their minerals. India and China are Russia’s main clients and if the oil is being brought under the $60 per barrel, which is widely believed, there will be repercussions for the Russian state. But it is that China will not, at this time of writing, arm Russia and provide Russia with the concessions that it wants. The twelve point peace plan is a framework that is significant, it challenges Russian arguments of sovereignty over the territory that it has invaded and moves the goal posts that Russia believed would be installed by a more conciliatory peace plan to its aims and objectives.