Current Affairs

China has a role in the conflict in Ukraine, but surprisingly it is a role determined by the values that it shares with Russia. China is now Russia’s largest client for gas and oil production. The market is now valued at $250 billion, but when compared to the trade Russia had with Europe, it is a fraction of the business.

The war in Ukraine surprised China, it was unaware of Russia’s plan to annex Ukraine, and has been shocked by how poorly the Russians have fought. According to Evan Feinbaum, China views the war as insane, irrational, and a disaster for both Europe and the world economy. But China is not as focussed on the war as it is on America. The United States challenges China’s position as a global power, and Russia itself China views as a junior partner, which supplies the market with cheap oil and gas.

Alexander Gabuev argues that China is a self interested power, and it is only interested in one outcome and that is what is good for China, its economy, industry and its standing in the world. But China’s main concern is the US Senate and Congress who are sanctioning Chinese companies and industries which they feel are threats to the US market, security and geo political arguments.  Analysts such as Evan Feinbaum argue that US Congress and Senate are pushing through laws to punish Chinese interests too quickly and should approach the matter with a carrot and stick approach. He argues that the approach taken is to much stick rather than carrot in other words China should have incentives to be encouraged to return to a reciprocal relationship, academically, economically and industrially.

There are also military concerns in the South China Sea, Pacific Rim and Pacific itself. To counter the concerns that the Chinese military build up in these areas, America has entered an alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom (AUKUS). Japan has moved on from its position of pacificism, and has begun to diplomatically and militarily take a stance in the China Sea and Pacific rim. There are also concerns in the Philippines, Vietnam and countries bordering China in the South China Sea area, which have been challenged by China’s aggressive posturing. “I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told a major defence conference in Singapore last summer.

Europe itself has been conciliatory to China, German Chancellor Olaf Schulz, believed that he received a concession from Xi Jinping when he agreed that Russia should not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But as a whole there were few agreements about the war and more agreements on trade. As a senior partner with Russia, there has been very little pressure, if any, placed on Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, other than a proposed peace determined by Russia’s own position, therefore totally unacceptable to the Ukrainians.

However there are geopolitical events that are affecting China’s ability to import gas from Central Asian nations. There have been gas supply shortages right across Central Asia, which has some of the richest gas reserves in the world.  Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have had problems supplying these commodities to their own nation, though they have extraordinary reserves. There is also pressure coming from Russia for the Central Asian nations to enter a tripartite agreement, which all the Central Asian countries initially distanced themselves from, but now are joining. It is thought the agreement is aimed at trying to control the gas supplies going to China, which has agreements with these nations for the contracted supply.

Richi Sunak the British Prime Minister, wrote that Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger and division.“China under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses an epoch-defining and systemetic challenge with implications for almost every area of government policy. […] Troubling for the UK is that Beijing has chosen to strengthen its relationship with Russia despite Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine.

IN an article in Al Jazeera, they quoted Liu Zuokui, a research fellow on European studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, writing in the Global Times, he stated that it had become routine for the UK to make provocative statements towards China, and that London was compensating for diminished stature on the world stage by adopting a “tough attitude towards China”

Bronwen Madox from Chatham House argued in a tweet that “the choice of vocabulary reflects a long desire to balance forging commercial ties with an increased wariness of data and security threats under President Xi’s leadership of China.”

The US Security strategy of the US identifies China as “America’s most consequential geopolitcal challenge.” Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting basic laws of international order today. The document reads that “China by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance the objective.”

Pressure from the West is intensifying China’s relationship with Russia, arms deals with Taiwan, totalling $1.8 billion, for aircraft and missiles has ratchetted up the pressure on China. Though China has made itself clear that it will not move on Russia, the geopolitical landscape is becoming more active in its own backyard and pressure is being placed on it through the continued arming of Taiwan. Analysts argue that the military deals between the US and Taiwan would have happened whether or not the United States were supplying weapons, but China’s support of Russia, has enabled these deals to come together more easily. “Japan has been strengthening its defence posture for years. The Ukraine situation made the key elements of Kishidas new National Security Strategy […] easier.”

Analysts of China argue that the CCP is advancing and the state is in retreat. The National People’s Congress endorsed Xi Jinpings third term as President, but also a reform plan that strengthens the party’s role in all aspects of decision making and governance, which gives the Party direct control over the financial sector and technology. Xi Jinping lashed out at the United States and argued that “Western countries led by the US have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development.”

China’s foreign minister Qin Gang warned that “conflict and confrontation with the United States is inevitable if Washington does not change course. But there are a number of reasons that China is taking this stance, as said earlier, China is being sanctioned by the United States, but it is the refusal of America to release sanctioned technology that China is angry. The continued sanctioning of China, because of its aggressive stance in the South China Sea, Pacific rim and Pacific, has led to the United States forcing through sanctions that slows down China’s development, which was alluded to by Xi Jinping in his speech to the CCP congress. But it is also China’s refusal to place pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine that has led to China being cornered and technically challenged by the West and Asian countries.