Current Affairs

One thousand casualties per day, one in ten Russian’s know somebody who has been killed, but is the message getting through to the Russians that this an incredibly costly war for the Russian military. It was not evident to the world after Putin’s speech to the state, nor was it evident when he postured in his celebratory stadium speech. But what is the reason for this war, is it really Ukraine, or was it more than this.

Moscow had McDonald’s, Subway, Guy La Roche, Gucci and many more Western brands. The big boys drive around in Mercedez, Rolls Royces and Range Rovers, they fly in Gulf Streams, Lear jets and any other make as long as it isn’t Russian. The aircraft that they are finding so hard to get spare parts for are Boeing and Airbus and the technology is Chinese, Japanese or even Apple. So was the war really about Ukraine or was Russia making a stance that this is actually a war about identity, an identity long gone, an identity lost in the distinct make up of what it was to be Russian in the 1970s and 1980s.

Putin did argue that he missed the cold war, the days that he was doing whatever he claimed to be doing in East Germany. The best and worst days of his life were in East Germany, Dresden, turning people, so he claims, but in reality a minor among the cold war warriors playing the big game, and the worst days of his life was burning thousands of papers in a furnace. So is this a question of Putin creating an identity for himself and Russia, away from Gucci and back to statecraft locked in a thousand offices that had one standard…. shrink.

The state is already a captured state, media are to frightened to confront and those that do are killed, imprisoned or nationalised. The voices that Lionise the media are just to stupid to tell the whole story and instead threaten… But what is it to be on the other side of the voices that hear, or refuse to listen, that is the question. Like anything in the old Soviet Union it was impossible to hear the other voices, apart from those who had been exiled, so the question has to be what do people really think. There was a poll that 70 percent of the Russian population were against the war in Ukraine and 20 percent for the war.

Was Russia moving to close to Europe, was that the problem. What was Putin thinking when he launched into this was war, was he thinking that Europe and the West would be forgiving. It was like Chechnya, just another space that could be usurped and rebuilt through a widely ridiculed thug. But this is not quite the war that Putin expected and in so many ways it has been the making of Ukraine and Ukrainian identity. For sure they don’t want to be Russian, but what is it that Russia expected at the start of this war, was it a remaking of the old Soviet empire, a revanchalist ideal or was it a remaking of something else?

Professor David Lewis, writing in RUSI argued that it is about identity, the identity of Russian’s and that Putin wants to draw that identity out. He believes in ethnic purity and that the Russian people have a history which is ethnically and philosophically superior to its Western counter parts. He believes in a neo-conservative argument against the liberalism of the West and in many ways does not accept the changes that were naturally happening in Russia, and these are the ideals that he was challenging in his war against Ukraine. But the argument that he has classic imperialist sentiments is the most troubling as this meant that after Ukraine, there would or could have been a war between NATO and Russia as a whole, as the next step would have been to attack the Baltic states. But it is a strange dichotomy of arguments, it seems to be just a Eurasian revision of ethnicity, his argument that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, in itself alienates other voices in Russia.

Those fighting in Ukraine have not come from the big cities, they have come from small cities, towns and villages where it is hard to hear the absolute horror stories. It is a war that is invisible in St Petersburg, Moscow and other cities. Why, because opinions can be heard and anger can be seen, so why not keep the war hidden from the voices that matter. But is this war invisible to the masses, is it just a plethora of voices lost in isolation that are heard, voices that just repeat the harshness of an argument and are dictated to to provide arguments for a war that is going badly.

But you are still left wondering whether the voices that are important are listening to those who argue against the war, especially as 70 percent are against the war. The rallying cry is that this is a war against NATO, the West and America, but the reality is that this is a war between an independent nation defending its borders and its people against a very aggressive Russia. This is not a war that Ukrainians are confused about, they are focussed and fighting for their identity as a nation. So is there anything that the Russians are fighting for apart from a strange argument of duel national inter-war.

There is no argument for the future path, just an invasion determined by a myopic ideal, a corruption of historical fact and an attempt to devalue an identity through the most primitive form of argument. But the question has to be who is managing an opposition that should have a voice in this war. Apart from the tiny snippets coming from Navalny’s cell, there are few other voices that have not been imprisoned. The contrasting manner of those in the Duma who have given unwavering support, is massive.

Is it a battle for identity or is it more than that that Russia invaded Ukraine. The problem is that the war is intractable, the Ukrainians have defined their argument worldwide and Russia has defined their ambitions in this war. Is there space for the Chinese peace plan, that is the question, can there be a ceasefire, a revision of Ukrainian identity and borders, that seems to be what China is asking for. Yet, China the most imperialistic state cannot imagine their borders without Taiwan, so is it a question of whether Russia as a power must win something. Is there a question of Ukraine not accepting meaning a reinvigorated Russia underpinned by Chinese technology, or is this a real peace plan that China has put forward.

But this is not the question that needs answering, what exactly did Putin want for the Russian people, was it a re-imagining of an imperial past, a new Soviet empire or just a battle that went to far, by an army that promised a lot and was buoyed by the factors that the West were weak in 2014,  and lost Afghanistan. Or was it just the revisionist imaging of a history that was corrupted by someone trying to redetermine a revanchalist historical bastardisation of factors, in an era that has been corrupted by the mutterings of Russia’s leadership.