Current Affairs

There are some analysts who believe that what comes after President Putin will be worse than now. But is the talk of what is to come just that bit to early. Western analysts cannot see the Russians holding on, they seem to think that with less than 100 tanks promised, the Ukrainians will be fully mobile and defeat the Russian’s by the end of this year. The question has to be what will happen to the Russian military if it is defeated. The defence Minister Medvedev, believes that the war will escalate into a nuclear horror show and that Russia will act in such a way that it will start a third world war.

Some analysts argue that this is unknown territory, there just does not seem to be an answer to what comes after a Russian defeat in Ukraine. This itself would be an answer of some sorts, but armies that have been routed generally do not disappear. Could there be another revolution in Russia seems to be the question, something that takes off in the same way that the Bolsheviks gained power after 1917.

These questions are coming up because the West is worried whether some in the FSB will assume power and act in such a way that the Russian army will revolt and turn inwardly. The main argument is whether a force of three hundred thousand will move to change the way that Russia sees itself. Would there be chaos in the same way that the 1990s is remembered in Russia, queues for bread, an economy that has collapsed and a nation in turmoil. This seems highly unlikely, but the question has to be what will happen to an army that has lost a war?

The consensus is that if the army did mutiny over the loss of territory in Ukraine, there would be a blame culture that would challenge Putin. President Putin would sack Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the army General Valery Geraimov, but to date Putin has been actively involved in the war. In an article by Tim Willseley Wilsey CMG, this may be when Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB) or Nikolai Patrushev ( a previous director of the FSB) challenge and remove Putin.

But are there other options, the problem is that there seems to be some popularity for the war in Ukraine among the Russian elite. There does not seem to be a popular movement against the war in Russia, so will there be peace. Putin in a speech argued that Europe is returning to a pre-war economy, as though Putin had already given up on his plan to annex Ukraine. So the question has to be whether Putin is readying his troops for a withdrawal from certain areas of Ukraine and fortifying areas such as Crimea and the Dombas, and returning the battlefield to the status-quo of pre-war Ukraine, this scenario is highly unlikely without a peace conference.

There are other forces, especially in France, President Macron who claims a tight relationship with Putin has been unusually quiet. He seems to be reneging on the tanks that were promised to the Ukrainians. France is in an unusual position, it is meant to have a door open to Putin and has tried numerous times to find a solution to the war in Ukraine, whether it is a statement by Joe Biden or trying to get Xi Jinping to negotiate a peace accord with France involved. But all along Macron has been thwarted by other arguments within Europe, Ukraine and Russia itself. France views the war very differently, it believed in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey in 2022: but with the collapse of the talks for an attempted negotiated settlement, there was a movement to supply the Ukrainians with the weapons it needed, France seemed to be out of the loop that the rest of Europe has been taking. The silence from France is deafening and with the decision taken by Germany to supply the tanks and permit other European countries to supply Ukraine with more tanks, France seems to have taken a back seat to the war in Ukraine.

Olaf Scholz in his speech heralding a new era (Zeitenwalde), argued that “Russian aggression has strengthened the resolve, which underpins European unity. He argued that “the world must not let Putin get his way; Russia’s revanchist imperialism must be stopped. […] In my exchanges with Volodymir Zelensky, I have made one thing very clear: Germany will sustain its efforts to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.” This now includes tanks, but the question remains of their effectiveness and the time scale before the tanks are delivered. But Germany has taken a very hard decision, what it views as an end game to the war is determined by its belief in Ukrainian democracy.

Can the door to Russia be opened after this war, or are we returning to an East and West confrontational argument. On the one side NATO and on the other Russia, seems to be one of the questions being asked. The Russian Duma (Parliament) is inactive, and those that want to be favoured are going to the frontline and dressing in fatigues in an act of support for the soldiers fighting. The other question is whether Navalny will be released and lead Russia onto a path of European hegemony, meaning bringing Russia closer to Europe.

All these arguments are what if…. but the likely scenario is that a scolded Putin, with the help of the FSB and the army is likely to remain for the time being; as his domination of the political elite is determined by his patronage and that of the controlled media, FSB and military itself.