Adaptation is going to be argued in Cop 27, and whether it is through adaptation that the world moves forward in tackling the temperature, climate and fluctuations that inevitably lead to the swings in weather disasters. Hurricanes, typhoons, flooding, droughts and other climate determined outcomes due to the world warming has led to the imposition of a 1.5 degree ceiling that has been agreed by all the worlds leaders. Environmentalists argue too little too late, while politicians fearing outcomes and questions of electability push ever onwards to the next summit in Egypt and place at the top of their agenda, the ability to adapt to the very real question of how to survive these environmental impacts.
A UNICEF report argued that there are one billion children at risk of the impacts of the climate crisis. They argue that of the 2.2 billion children there are 1 billion who live in 33 countries classified as being of high risk. The risks are drought, extreme weather, clean water, sanitation, healthcare and education. The children’s Climate Risk Index points out that there are 240 million children who are exposed to coastal flooding, 330 million exposed to riverine flooding, 400 million children exposed to cyclones, 600 million children exposed to vector borne diseases, 815 million children are being exposed to lead pollution, 820 million children are exposed to heat waves, 920 million children are exposed to water scarcity and a billion children are exposed to air pollution. Whilst all children are affected, 850 million children live in areas where at least four of these environmental risks overlap. A further 330 million children live in fear of at least five of these environmental events, but it is most revealing that these environmental and climate related disasters generally happen to 33 high risk countries, which only emit 9 percent of global CO2 emissions.
UNICEF wants an increase in investment in climate adaptation, to protect communities and the most vulnerable. They point out that Countries need to cut emissions by 45 percent by 2030 when compared to 2010, and provide children with education to enhance the green skills to adapt in preparation of climate change. This of course costs money and the COP27 taking place in Egypt is set to argue that adaptation is the key to movements to integrate UNICEF concerns.
A UNICEF report written on 14 February 2022 by Jamal Abdi Sarman. Three hundred and fifty kilometres from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, there has been a drought which has led to the drying of boreholes, water pans and the decimation of pastures. Families living in Toghdeer, Sool and Sanag have lost their livestock. Hoodoo Hussein, a mother of four, travelled from Gelwar village. “Our village is severely hit by the ongoing drought and our livestock were forced to roam further to seek water and pasture. We lost 120 goats and remained with five female goats […] Now we don’t have regular support […] we are lucky to get one meal a day.” Noor Saleeban from Gure village said that “In normal times, we would sell a goat for $50. Right now, I would be lucky to get $10.”
If the argument is adaptation, then the argument is whether this area has a way to adapt and to a degree evolve through these uncertain times. An article written by Lisa Lynn Hill details how a British led project has built a climate resilient bore hole run by solar power. Up until 2021, Haji Khair, was prone to drought but now 18,000 people, 3000 children and their livestock are supported by a sustainable water supply from a 400m deep borehole. Abdirizak Yusuf, a pastoralist said that “before this waterhole, my family could only stay in this area for two months and then would have to move on because there was no rain and the children were weak.”
Sue Binyas, the deputy climate envoy in the US State Department, argues that the Paris Agreement in 2015, was determined to limit global temperature to 1.5 degrees, the main scientific think tank IPCC, argues that increments of 0.1 degrees affects the environment and if there had been an agreement on 2 degrees then all coral reefs would have been wiped out. Binyas argues that “1.5 degrees is not ideal, but it is manageable. […] After Paris, you realised that from a scientific point of view you needed to do more than you thought.” Why is this disconnect so important and why does she begin with Paris, there was a disconnect between Trump’s administration and climate programmes, so Paris is the last reference point that America was involved with in the climate argument, other than rubbishing the points that were central to the COP conference in Glasgow. Furthermore, Biden ran on a ticket of “Let build back better,” which included questions concerning the environment and the impact of global warming on not only America, but also worldwide. But right at the first step the Biden administration was stymied on the question of coal and was defeated in Senate on implementing his policy and the Glasgow COP initiatives.
Since Glasgow there has been a report by the IPCC that argues that the environment is in a worse shape than realised, which makes the implementation of the arguments concerning Glasgow far more important. The other distraction has been Ukraine, which is on the verge of creating a man made disaster because of the war and shortages of grain being exported to the most vulnerable nations. Sue Binyas admits that the world is not on track to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees and the world is closer to 1.8 degrees rather than that agreed. But it is the politicization of the agreement that keeps falling down, the Paris agreement still needed clarity on its aims and objectives, five years later Glasgow finally got agreement on the technical arguments.
Sue Binyas went on to say that the US had come to three agreements with China, the end of China’s reliance on coal, the second was deforestation and the illegal harvesting of timber and the third was methane. Methane being the most important, as it is impossible to remove methane from the atmosphere and is a “potent greenhouse gas. […] The methane question was a signatory triumph, we got over a hundred countries to join the methane pledge, it is about global methane, get it down by 30 percent. […] None of this (Paris) works, unless China reaches it’s 2015 targets.”
Right across Europe, the Middle East, Asia and as far as Japan, record breaking temperatures have been recorded across the Northern Hemisphere in the past month. Temperatures across Europe and Asia have surpassed the 40 degree mark during the month of June and wild fires have broken out across much of Europe. According to new research by climate scientists, climate change is the significant factor. Ben Clarke an environmental scientist from the University of Oxford believes “all heatwaves across the world have been made more intense and more likely by climate change.”
NASA, was asked by documentary film maker Nicholas Clapp, to see if they could help find the lost city Ubar, in Saudi Arabia. Although Ubar is in one of the driest places on earth, there is evidence that the region was wetter and underground water resources existed. An Egyptian kingdom collapsed during a drought 4,200 years ago and also it is said that it was likely that the Maya ended because of droughts in 900AD. But it is the unpredictability of climate change that delineates these changes.
One of the answers to climate temperature rises is to plant more trees, especially in urban settings. Urban greening as it is called, means that areas of high rainfall such as northern Europe and around the equator means tree planting can take place. Freetown in Sierra Leone is part of an idea that to cool the city it will plant a million trees, because water vapour is released by plants during photosynthesis. Places such as Tokyo are building wind tunnels and Tel Aviv is installing light coloured sun shades with solar panels, so they can power lights at night. But all this costs money and apart from Sierra Leone, the concept of adaptation seems to be central to first world programmes.
Sue Binyas, outlined a US programme to invest in climate adaptation in South Africa, which has now included countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam. But because these COP are hosted by a different country every year priorities change, they are generally determined by the priorities of the country that is holding the COP. So in this instance what will Egypt’s priorities be, we already know that the prime argument is adaptation, but what about the environmental hazard running through Cairo, or the terrible pollution from plastics, rather than the sun kissed loungers next to the Red Sea, where the conference on the environments is going to be held, will these be significant aspects in the concerns the delegates attending a COP conference?
Egypt, more than any other country in North Africa is trying to put into practice the argument of adaptation, because the nation is so dependent on a singular source for its existence, the Nile river. An article in the Egyptian Independent, written on the 15th May 2018, quoted a report by the World Health Organisation, which ranked Cairo as the second most polluted city in the world. A Save the Water report written by Fady Michael, dated 14th April 2014, stated that 38 million people drink contaminated water in Egypt. There were 4.5 million tons of partially or untreated industrial and human pollutants entering the Nile every year. The research by the World Health Organisation believed that 100,000 people got cancer and a further 15,000 had kidney disease and other diseases from drinking contaminated water from the Nile.
The Egyptian Ministry of Environment has been working to change Egypt’s reputation as an environmental black spot. Water treatment plants have been built or are in the process of being completed along the Nile from Aswan to Cairo, to clean the Nile from industrial, farming, chemical and human pollutants. But it is the geography and geopolitics of the region that make it so hard to manage the cleanliness of the river. The Nile river runs through 11 countries and provides 300 million people with drinking water, it is a source to irrigate farm land and acts as a dumping ground for sewerage and industrial pollutants.
One of the arguments for adaptation is how do you source finance for projects that will enable a nation to adapt to climate change and build the resources to tackle the concerns that the nation has, in being able to adapt? Egypt issued a sovereign green bond in order to raise US$500 million, with a 5.75% interest rate paid after five years. The issue was hugely oversubscribed and the government was able to raise US$750 million. With this source of finance the government has been able to diversify and integrate more projects into the green argument. It has built buses that are green, extended the underground in Cairo, it has extended projects in the Nile delta, rejuvenated lakes in the Nile Delta, re-introduced new species (with the help of its partners) to the desert, found new uses for agricultural waste, recycling the straw and other waster products from harvest and has increased wind farms. Eman Abdelazim, Head of external debt said that she “considered the Green Bond as an important opportunity to demonstrate the governments commitment to integrating stability in its funding strategy and achieving its nationally determined contribution targets as set out in the Paris agreement”.
Egypt is not a signatory to the imperatives of COP, it has been assigned as a developing nation, so the implications determined by Glasgow and Paris are peripheral arguments. Egypt has developed gas fields and is developing port facilities to export LPG into Europe. It also exports gas to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon through new and existing pipelines. Egypt is developing or in the process of developing bi-lateral agreements with other nations to export gas from off shore fields belonging to Israel and Cyprus.
For all Egypt’s success at raising finance to fix the environmental problems affecting the nation through releasing Green Bonds; Green bonds make up 2.2% of US$27.3 trillion of all bonds released by the worlds financial institutions. Since 2008, the World Bank has issued US$18 billion in Green Bonds in 25 different currencies, which as a fixed income product has a triple A rating. Under the climate change action plan, the World Bank from 2016-2020 increased climate finance from 21% to 28%, they argue that private sector finance is critical and that low carbon markets attracts US$1 trillion investment annually. The World Bank is pushing initiatives to develop solar and wind generation, its worldwide goal is to finance 17.5 gigawatt hours of battery storage by 2025. The EU and other sources of investment have enabled Egypt to build Benban Solar Park, which will generate 2,000 megawatts and employs 4,000 workers in green jobs. The project has been designed to save 2 million tons of green house emissions a year, which in Egypt is significant.
According to IQ Air, a Swiss pollutant measuring company, Egypt is now ranked 28th in the world for pollutants in the air. However, according to World Health Organisation, the annual guideline should be cut by half, from 10UG/m3 to 5ug/m3, so a city such as London, which is ranked in the world as the 82nd most polluted city in the world, measures at 9.8ug/m3. New Cairo measured at 29.1ug/m3, the most polluted city in Africa is N’Djamena in Chad with a reading of 77.6 ug/m3, but New Delhi leads the world as the most polluted city with a reading of 85 ug/m3.
There are a number of reasons that New Delhi leads the world in pollution, the most significant is the practice of clearing farmland through burning stubble. Egypt suffered from the same approach, but through re-engineering the waste from paddy fields into secondary uses, the black cloud that hung over Cairo for days has disappeared. But Delhi, like Cairo suffers from traffic congestion, particles from the desert, burning of fossil fuels to cook and generation of power that is reliant on fossil fuels. With Egypt’s renewal of its green infrastructure (solar and wind), there has been a remarkable transformation of the air quality in cities such as Alexandria, Cairo and Aswan. The cleaning up of the pollutants has enabled and empowered the environmental agency to concentrate the resources of the state to develop a two tier approach to the climate agenda.
But more needs to be done concerning the climate question in Egypt before COP 27, the question of transport, transport infrastructure and modernising industry towards resourcing from renewable energy and away from the old soviet equipment that industries such as iron, steel and other heavy industries have been using. The modernisation of Egypt is coming at a cost, but it is the determination of Egypt to modernise its infrastructure that to date has been so impressive, but without new forms of revenue and resources to continue environmental initiatives. The question for adaptation has to be a question of who pays, how and in what way can secondary and collapsed economies such as Chad, be able to afford to adapt to environmental concerns, when nations such as China and the United States are only able to issue one percent of the Bond Market on Green Bonds, in order to move these heavily polluting economies towards zero carbon.
In 2015, The United States generated 5.7% of its electricity from wind and solar power. Also in 2015, Morgan Stanley issued a green bond worth US$500 million, for the development of renewable energy. In April 2022, the United States generated 18% of their energy needs through wind and solar farms, which according to the electrek website, is 7% less than most European countries. The Paris agreement stipulates that by 2025, alternative energy sources that are environmentally friendly should capture 25% and by 2050, 70% of power generated should come from renewables.
On Wednesday 20th July 2022, Biden decided to enforce an executive order to tackle the climate crisis in America. He argued that America needed a different future and that green energy was key to how America would tackle climate change. Biden argued that the climate crisis was costing America $140 billion and was “putting the economy at risk. One hundred million Americans are at risk from extreme weather caused by climate change,” Biden stated in the televised speech. He went on to say that his administration would invest $2.3 billion in clean energy, but Biden was short on calling the environmental disasters affecting America a national emergency.
According to Verisk there are 2,040,600 properties at risk in California from risk of wildfires and according to their risk analysis data for 2019, 4.5 million properties in the United States were identified as either at high risk or extreme risk in 2021. In 2021, there were 58,948 fires causing damage to 7,124,544 acres of land. The worst state affected was California with 9,260 fires burning through 2,233,666 acres of land.
Derek Lemoine, a lecturer in economics, sites a report by Ricardo Colacito et al, that for every one degree in a heatwave, production slows, crop yields drop and energy use soars. The report that he was evidencing argues that temperature rise leads to a drop of output between 0.15 – 0.25 percentage points. They also argue that not all industries suffer from temperatures, for instance the utilities and mining sector (resources such as oil, gas etc), which of course is about the generation of energy, but the question has to be whether minerals, oil, gas coal and any other mineral used in generating power. Senator Manchin celebrated that the ‘Build back Better’, push by Biden to rejuvenate the economy through investment in ecologically sound principles, was in the words of Senator Manchin…. ‘dead’…
According to Eos website, America is experiencing more unpredictable weather changes. For instance coastal and tidal flooding has grown across 25 cities. They argue that sea level on the east coast and gulf coast, is due to melting land ice and changes in ocean circulation. Just trying to re-introduce wildlife into areas is proving a problem for conservation groups, with forest fires, warming sea temperatures and polluted or silted up rivers. But it is plastics in rivers, deltas, coastlines and on ocean surfaces. Plastics effect the industries associated with fishing, which in the United States is a $3 billion dollar industry, just for the weekend warriors who fish.
Just plastic litter costs US$1.26 billion a year for the Asian Pacific Rim. Arguments about how much plastic is entering the rivers ecosystem, range from 0.41 metric tonnes to 4 million metric tonnes, and according to scientists the 10 largest rivers account for anywhere between 61% and 94%, dependent on the river. In the US the Snake river in the Pacific north-west is ranked as the most endangered river, where salmon runs have shrunk. The Missouri is America’s longest river, a 2,300 mile once diverse river. Rachel Bartels, the director of Missouri Confluence Waterkeeper said that “In Missouri we have coal ash, radioactive waste, abandoned lead mines and a variety of […]toxic accidents waiting to happen. When an area floods, this chemical soup becomes part of our water system, potentially impairing your drinking water.”
John Kerry, the Presidential envoy for climate, said: The climate threatens so many aspects of life […]. It threatens our health, our security and our economy, and that’s in large part because it threatens our most precious resource, abundant, fresh clean water.” According to Nina Lakhani, writing in the Guardian newspaper, The Tar creek is a no go zone for communities, where toxic waste from the worlds largest lead and zinc mine, daily 1 million gallons of contaminated water is discharged into Tar creek. “For 42 years, acid mine water and toxic runoff has been pouring down Tar Creek under the eyes of the State and EPA,” said Earl Hatley, Grand Riverkeeper.
The Philippines river systems are considered the most polluted in Asia, but it is the micro-plastics that are entering the food chain that is most concerning. But the pollution from China is the most pressing argument that will be a singular point of contention, especially as President Xi Jinping, has argued that China, will not be carbon neutral until 2060. China’s carbon footprint, though a mitigating argument, is dependent on the ability of China to adapt to be able to reach its target of zero carbon by 2060. China is the largest green house gas emitting nation, because it is the work shop of the world, meaning its GDP is concentrated on exports. This is the catch twenty two, do you argue that CO2 emissions should be shared with the world buying Chinese products, as was argued in a 2012 report. A report dated 7 May 2021, by the Rhodium Group says that China is emitting 27% of the worlds greenhouse gasses, with the US following at 11% and India third emitting 6.6% of greenhouse gasses.
A report by HSBC, dated 2020, points out that the world market for Green Bonds reached US$1 trillion, of that in 2020, the total number of green bonds issued in both the domestic and overseas markets- China raised US$44 billion, which was a decrease of 21% from the 2019 level. HSBC saw the problem as being caused by the Covid pandemic, with China concentrating its financial resources on the pandemic. But there have been other issues that account for the issuance of the green bond making up 1% of the total bond market in China, such as in May 2020, fossil fuels were removed from Green Bond endorsed projects, which brought China into alignment with Europe and in line with climate bonds worldwide, this has challenged Chinese investors and industry. In 2020, China was the fourth largest issuer of green bonds, lagging behind the US market with the largest amount of issuers (144) and the largest volume, but the largest issuers tend to be local government, but it is Germany who are in second place according to the HSBC report.
The main investment in green bonds that China makes are infrastructure projects, such as Metro and urban transport, which are mostly funded by local governments, but local water authorities such as Guizhou Water Investment, Qingdao Water Group are generally backed by government issued bonds, which were up by 20%. Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy invested US$2.1 billion in solar and wind projects and Shenhua New Energy, which is the largest state owned coal mining enterprise in the world, issued RMB1 billion – financing wind and solar projects. Of the green bonds, only 5% is invested in ecological protection and climate change adaptation (Source Climate Bonds Initiative).
According to a HSBC, 2020 report, most of China’s green bond financing has been allocated to mitigation rather than adaptation and resilience. There is still a lot of difference between the way China allocates green bonds and other markets around the world, meaning that the non-aligned green bond volume is US$20.2 billion or 46% of issuances. So somewhere like the Shanghai stock exchange set rules for the Green Corporate Bond that identified that issuers with more than 50% of revenue generated from defined green industries, could issue green corporate bonds, as long as 70% of the funds are used in the green sector.
Finally in 2020, green bonds were removed from industries such as clean coal, low emission coal fired power stations, clean fuel production and the manufacturing of offshore oil and gas production platforms; however, gas remained in the green bond catalogue, so Tianjin Nengyuan Investment finances coal-to-gas and other projects remain in the green portfolio for some investors in China’s Green Bonds. The majority of green issuances goes into the transport sector, with China Railway Corp being the largest issuer US$230.1 billion of aligned or outstanding bonds, but it is energy that comes in second, with the top three issuers being China National Nuclear Corp, China three gorges and China Yangtze Power.
Solving the relationship between environmentalism and economic development is Xi Jinping’s theoretical argument of CCP doctrine. At the 2021 Leaders summit on climate, Xi said, “We must be committed to green development. Green mountains are gold mountains. To protect the environment is to protect productivity, and to improve the environment is to boost productivity.” According to Bloomberg, a speech by President Xi, argued that China had to move at a different speed and that efforts to achieve climate targets need to work with governments other objectives, as policy makers need to “balance environmental and economic aims.” Xi argued that carbon goals should not clash with the nations priorities, which included food, energy and materials “to ensure the normal life of the masses”. (Xinhua news agency). Leo Wang an analyst with Bloomberg believes Xi is arguing “a safety first policy towards energy, which will support the development of renewables, but (will be) backed by coal.”
Reporting on China has become more difficult, journalist involved with environmental questions are leaving the profession or being forced to leave the country. Chinese officials argue that Covid vaccine levels remain low, so it is unsafe for journalists to investigate stories. China like everywhere else in the world is suffering a severe power shortage caused by the war in Ukraine. In an effort to balance the economy, China has phased out strict controls on coal production, (coal was meant to be phased out in 2025), and increased production to meet energy needs, in what the CCP argue is “for the security and stability of the state’s energy needs”. According to Climate Home News, in an article written by Chloe Farrand, after speaking to 11 journalists, all said that “tighter restrictions are leaving them (journalists) dependent on the governments narrative.” In other words there is very little independent environmental reporting on the future of China’s green initiatives, which means it is difficult to get an accurate understanding of China’s efforts to tackle pollution, global warming and environmental concerns.
Much to the surprise of the Biden Presidency, Senator Manchin backed the environmental objectives of the White House, like anything in America, it comes down to negotiating, or to put it better, what’s in it for my state? A new gas pipeline, $700 million to cap uneconomical wells and an element of fracking seems to be the answer…. But it is the impossibility of political argument that challenges where the next COP goes, it is a question of whether the question really is adaptation, or as senator Manchin has managed to negotiate, it has become a question of what is in it for me. Three hundred and sixty five billion dollars is being pumped into the environmental question in the United States, through tax credits and energy spending. With each argument there is a but, what and why. Federal land is up for exploration from the hydrocarbon industry, but it is the attempt to industrialise the green movement that is at its most interesting. The tax credits are being put in place to de-carbonise the economy, the headline is that there will be a credit for the new and second hand car industry, but it is also for the manufacturing of green products, such as solar, wind turbines and emerging technologies such as clean hydrogen and fuels for the aviation industry, where the US market is trailing the rest of the world, especially China. In Scientific America, an interview with Julio Friedman, a former Department of Energy official argued that they now had the tools needed and that “we will now have the technology and the money to act on climate [change]. But it is the industrialisation that is most exciting experts, Dan Lashoff, US Director at the World Resource Institute said that “the challenge is going to be building the right things in the right place”. The Rhodium Group and Princeton University argue that the “Inflation Reduction Act” should reduce emissions by 40 per cent by 2030, if the act can cut carbon output by 3 percent every year.
At a gathering of the United Nations in July, world leaders put their best foot forward, argued where the world was going and how they could adapt to climate change. An argument from the Southern hemisphere was put forward at the UN forum, asking where the capital come from for the non industrialised nations most affected by climate change to adapt……there was silence in response to this question. So for the developing world, the question is whether the green bond is just that little extra bit of debt. Would the green bond be behind the IMF, China’s Belt and Road initiative in debt servicing and was it possible for a nation with poor debt management to be able to generate revenue from a triple A rated Green Bond and sell it on the international market, while at the same time struggling to adapt.
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